까다피 이후 리비아의 정치변동에 관한 연구
A Study on Political Change in Libya after Gaddafi
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초록
이 논문은 2011년 아랍민주화 시위이후 내분사태로 이어져 지속적으로 사회갈등과 정치변동을 겪고 있는 리비아의 불안정에 대하여 민주화가 진척되지 못하는 이유를 ‘정치변동론’의관점에서 분석하는데 그 목적이 있다. 제3세계의 정치변동은 다양한 형태로 진화되어 왔다. 군부독재정권의 권력 획득과정과 독재정권의 안정, 그 이후 이어지는 시민사회의 저항, 이를 통해 독재정권의 붕괴와 새로운 정치질서의 형성이 나타났다. 이 연구는 이러한 제3세계의정치변동의 형태를 리비아를 통해 분석하고 있다. 리비아에 대한 연구는 내부갈등 및 내전상황, 부족주의, 이슬람주의 등을 중심으로 리비아국내의 상황변화를 다루는데 그치고 있어 리비아의 상황을 아랍세계의 정치변동이라는 측면에서는 접근한 연구는 많지 않다. 리비아의 정치변동은 부족주의, 이슬람주의 단체, 무장단체간의 갈등, 지역갈등, 힘겨룸과정 그리고 이들 간의 상호 작용에서 나온다. 이러한 갈등은 리비아 각 부족들 간의 불균형 성장에 따른 지역 간의 갈등을 통해 힘의 균형에 변화를 주었다. 세력 갈등에 따른 부족들 간의갈등은 특정정치세력의 성장 다른 정치세력의 쇠퇴라는 힘의 균형에 변화를 줌으로써 오늘날과 같은 리비아의 정치적 혼란을 가져왔다. 이 연구에서는 아랍민주화 시위 이후의 리비아를 아랍세계의 ‘정치변동’이라는 측면에서 분석하고, 아울러 리비아의 정치적 혼란상황을 통하여 향후 리비아의 정치 발전이 어떠한 형태로 이루어질 것인가를 논하고 있다. 즉 정치변동에 대하여 현상적인 이론들을 설정하고 이들을 리비아의 정치변동에 적용함으로써 이를 증명함과 아울러 까다피 정권 몰락 후에 리비아의 정치변동이 어떠한 방향으로 전개되어 갔는지에 대하여 연구하고 있다.
Abstract
The purpose of this study lies in analyzing from the viewpoint of ‘the theory of political change’the reasons that there is no more democratization for the unstability of Libya undergoing continual social conflict and political change after pro-democracy protests in Arab in 2011, which are followed by internal conflict. The political change of the third world has been evolving in various forms: the process in which the military dictatorial regime seizes power and its stability, the following resistance of the civil society, and the resulting collapse of the dictatorship and formation of new political order. This study analyzes those forms of the political change of the third world through Libya. The earlier studies on Libya just deal with its domestic change in the situation around issues such as internal conflict and civil war, tribalism, and Islamism. There are not many ones that approach the situation in the country in terms of the political change of the Arab world. The political change in Libya results from tribalism, Islamist groups, conflicts between armed groups, regional conflict, the process of power games, and the interaction between these factors. These conflicts have brought about the change in power balance through the regional conflict between tribes concerning their unbalanced growth. They has brought today’s political chaos to Libya by leading to a change in the balance of power like the growth of specific political powers and decline of other ones. This study analyzes Libya after pro-democracy protests in Arab in terms of ‘political change’in the Arab world, and discusses how Libyan politics will develop in the future through the background against which political chaos occurred in the country. That is, for the political change in Libya, this study proves the situation by setting up hypotheses and applying them to it, and deals with the way in which it will develop after the collapse of the Gaddafi regime.
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