독재정권의 체제 이행상 외부세력의 영향력에 관한 연구: 시리아와 리비아 비교를 통해

Abstract

The Syrian civil revolution and the Libyan civil revolution in 2011 overthrew Gaddafi’s regime in Libya, but Assad’s regime in Syria survived. It can be confirmed that the Syrian civil revolution and the Libyan civil revolution had a similar development pattern in the regime’s severe bloody suppression on the protesters, the arming of the protesters, and the escalation into civil war. The difference is that the UN adopted a resolution and pursued military intervention in Libya according to the “Responsibility to Protect (R2P) ”, but the resolution was rejected, and no military action was taken in Syria. In Libya, the military actions of external forces played a decisive role in the collapse of the regime, and in Syria, the regime survived by restraining the military actions of external forces under the protection of a power such as Russia. Usually, in order for a dictatorship to collapse the resistance level of the resistance forces must be high and the degree of division of the ruling forces must be large. Even if the resistance level of the resistance forces is high, if the ruling forces are not divided or the degree of division is small, the regime is highly likely to survive. However, even if the resistance level of the resistance forces is high and the degree of division of the ruling forces is small, if the actions of external forces operate, the dictatorship can collapse. Even if the resistance level of the resistance forces is high and the degree of division of the ruling forces is small, the influence of external forces can determine whether the dictatorship will be changed. In other words, when external forces help the resistance forces, the dictatorship is changed, and when external forces help the ruling forces, the dictatorship is maintained without regime transition. If some external forces help the resistance forces and some external forces help the ruling forces, depending on which of the external forces helping the resistance forces and the external forces that help the ruling forces is stronger, the result goes according to the demands of the stronger side. It can be confirmed by comparing the Syrian civil revolution and the Libyan civil revolution that the ‘exogenous variable’ of external forces in addition to the ‘endogenous variables’ such as resistance forces and ruling forces are valid as a condition for transition of the dictatorship.