브렉시트(Brexit)의 재구성: 유로존 위기, 금융통합, 그리고 긴축
Brexit Revisited: Eurozone Crisis, Financial Integration and Austerity
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이 논문의 목적은 2013년 1월 브렉시트 국민투표가 처음 의제로 제기되고 2016년 6월 국민투표에서 가결될 수 있었던 구조적 조건을 분석하는 것이다. 브렉시트는 유로존 위기 이후 유럽금융통합의 진화 속에서 영국이 직면한 대외적 딜레마를 배경으로 의제로 제기되었고, 2010년 이후 대내적으로 강력히 추진된 긴축정책의 결과 국민투표에서 가결될 수 있었다. 유로존 위기 이후 유럽연합의 금융통합정책은 ‘은행 동맹’(banking union)에서 대표되는 바와 같이 금융시장에 대한 규제와 유럽연합의 금융감독 권한을 강화하는 방향으로 진화한다. 이는 유로존 위기 이전 유럽의 금융통합이 영국의 주도하에 개방성과 탈규제를 중심으로 전개되었던 것과는 뚜렷이 대비된다. 유로존 위기 이후 유로존 국가들이 유럽의 금융통합을 주도하는 상황은 유로존 회원이 아니면서도 유럽의 금융중심지 역할을 하는 영국에게 중대한 도전으로 작용하였다. 이러한 사정은 영국과 유로존 국가들 사이의 위기 사이클이 뚜렷이 대비되었다는 점과 결부되어 영국의 정치엘리트 사이에서 브렉시트 문제를 둘러싼 갈등이 격화되는 이유가 된다. 2013년 1월 캐머런 총리의 블룸버그 연설에서 브렉시트 국민투표가 처음 의제로 제기된 것은 이러한 사정을 배경으로 한다. 한편 2010년 집권한 캐머런 총리는 금융권에 대한 대대적인 구제금융이 야기한 재정적자를 메우기 위해 강력한 긴축정책을 시행한다. 이에 따른 복지예산의 축소와 복지지출의 감소는 이른바 사회경제적 낙오자들(the left behind)의 누적된 불만이 브렉시트 국민투표 가결로 표출되는 핵심 요인으로 작용한다.
Abstract
This paper explores the structural conditions under which the Brexit referendum emerged as a political agenda and finally concluded in favor. I argue that the post-Eurozone crisis evolution of European financial integration and the austerity policy of the UK since 2010 are the two major driving forces that result in the Brexit as we now see it. Post-crisis European financial integration, which culminated in the decision to create a Banking Union, diverged sharply from the pre-crisis one. While liberalization and deregulation were the basic principles of the pre-crisis European financial integration, stricter regulation and transfer of supervisory authority from national to European level has become the cornerstone of the post-crisis EU financial integration. This development, which was advocated by the Eurozone countries, caused dilemma to the UK in her relationship with the EU for her status as being simultaneously the European financial center and the monetary outsider. This dilemma in turn sharply split up political elites, together with the diverging crisis cycle between the UK and the Eurozone countries. Domestically the UK adopted draconian austerity policy since 2010 in order to curb fiscal deficit and public debt that skyrocketed due to the massive bailout to the financial sector after the 2008 global financial crisis. This fiscal contraction, which infuriated the so-called left-behind, was the main reason why the referendum ended in favor.
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