어떤 유형의 원조가 분쟁 종료에 기여할 수 있는가?: 아프리카 분쟁국을 대상으로
What type of aid would contribute to civil war termination?: A study on conflict related countries in Africa
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지속적인 국제사회의 원조 공여에도 불구하고, 아프리카의 분쟁국들은 여전히 심각한 수준의 폭력과 빈곤에 노출되어 있다. 과연 공여국은 원조 제공을 통해 분쟁의 종료를 이끌어낼수 있을까? 어떤 유형의 원조가 내전의 종료에 기여하는가? 본 연구는 정부와 반군이 보유한자원 간의 균형이 깨짐으로써 대치 상태가 종료 즉, 내전이 종료될 수 있을 것이라 전제하고, 어떤 유형의 원조가 해당 균형의 깨짐에 유의미한 영향을 미치는가를 살펴본다. 구체적으로OECD 구분에 따른 7가지 유형의 원조를 독립변수로 다루며 2002년부터 2019년까지 아프리카 34개 국가에서 관찰된 모든 내전을 종속변수로 활용하여, 원조 공여와 분쟁 종료 간의 관계를 탐색한다. 콕스비례위험함수모형(Cox Proportional Hazard Model)을 사용한 분석 결과에 따르면 아프리카 내전의 종료에 가장 큰 영향을 미치는 원조의 유형은 ‘예산지원(budget support)’이다. 즉, 수원국에 대한 예산지원 규모가 큰 경우 혹은 수원국에 대한 예산지원이급격히 감소하는 경우에 내전이 종료될 확률이 높아지는 것이다. 예산지원의 절대 규모가 큰경우에 정부는 자원 보유에서 우위를 확정함으로써, 반면 절대 규모와 무관하게 예산지원이급격히 감소하는 경우에는 반군이 자원 보유에서 우위를 점함으로써 상호 간 자원 보유의 균형이 무너지게 되고, 결과적으로 내전의 종료가 관찰되는 것으로 해석할 수 있다.
Abstract
Does foreign aid contribute to civil war termination? Are there particular types of aid that can shorten or extend the duration of civil wars? This study attempts to address these questions by analyzing how the scale and variability of different types of foreign aid influence the duration of African civil wars. The sample incorporates 51 conflicts in 34 African countries during the period from 2002 to 2019. Based on the Cox proportional hazards model, the results suggest that it is ‘budget support’ that is most closely associated with expected durations of civil war. Both large amounts of budget support and its dramatic decrease significantly reduce a conflict's expected duration. We argue that, during war, cash-based budget support can be diverted by recipient governments for military use. Hence, budget support ― its scale and variability ― inadvertently shift the balance of military resources between the warring parties, potentially leading to the early termination of conflict.
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