아프리카 분리주의 전쟁의 결과에 대한 고찰
Understanding the Outcome of African Secessionist Conflicts
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초록
아프리카는 내전이 기승을 부리는 대륙으로 알려져 있다. 본 논문은 내전의 한 종류인 분리주의 전쟁에 초점을 맞추었다. 우선 왜 대부분의 아프리카 분리주의 전쟁이 실패로 돌아갔는지를 분석하였다. 본 논문은 네 가지 원인들을 제시하였다. 첫째, 아프리카 지도자들의 식민지 국경선에 대한 집착은 그들로 하여금 분리주의 반군의 도전에 단호하게 대처하도록 이끌었다. 둘째, 뿌리 깊은 주권존중의 규범 (norm)으로 인해 아프리카 국가들은 외국의 분리주의 세력을 지원하는 것을 꺼렸다. 외부의 지원 없이 반정부군은 정부군과 전투에서 우위를 점할 수 없었다. 셋째, 정부가 강압정책과 회유정책을 통해 반군과 지역민들 간의 연대를 끊으려고 노력하였다. 넷째, 석유와 같은 천연 자원이 분리주의 지역에 존재할 경우 정부는 독립 요구를 거부하고 분리주의자들을 무력화시키려 노력하였다. 다음으로 나미비아, 에리트레아, 남수단 분리주의 무장투쟁의 성공 요인들을 살펴보았다. 반군들의 외부 지원 획득과 정부에 대한 불만 극대화, 천연 자원의 존재, 정부의 잔인한 군사작전으로 인한 반군과 지역민들 간의 연대 강화가 무장 투쟁의 성공을 초래하였다.
Abstract
Africa is considered as a continent fraught with civil war. This article focuses attention on secessionist conflict, one type of civil conflict. I investigate why most secessionist conflicts in Africa failed to bring about independence of conflict regions, suggesting four plausible causes. First, post-colonial rulers clung to state boundaries demarcated by the colonizers, which drove these leaders to subdue secessionist challenges at any means. Second, due to norm of respecting state sovereignty, many African leaders were reluctant to support secessionist rebels in foreign countries. Third, the government sought to sever rebels' tie with the local population. Fourth, the presence of abundant resources incentivized the government to exert a strenuous effort to neutralize secessionist insurgents. This article also examines factors that generated the success of secessionist armed struggle in Namibia, Eritrea, and South Sudan. I claim that rebels' acquisition of foreign support and solid bond between insurgents and the local population resulting from grievances, natural resources, and the government's brutality caused the success of Namibian, Eritrean, and southern Sudanese armed struggles.
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