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교토의정서와 국내정치적 요인이 EU 회원국들의 온실가스 배출에 미친 영향력 분석

The Effects of the Kyoto Protocol and Political Factors on Greenhouse Gas Emissions of the EU Member States

정수현
한국세계지역학회 (The Korean Association Of Area Studies)|2016.06|세계지역연구논총 (The Korean Journal of Area Studies)|제34권 제2호|pp. 7-32

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키워드

법치주의온실가스유럽연합(EU)교토의정서Kyoto ProtocolEuropean Union거부권행사자녹색당Green PartyGreenhouse Gas Emissions국제협약의 실효성정부이념government ideologyveto players
주제분류정치외교학

초록

왜 1990년대 이후 국가들의 온실가스 배출 증감률에 차이가 나타나는가? 교토의정서는부속서 I 국가들의 온실가스 감축에 실효성을 가지는가? 만일 실효성이 있다면 그 이유는무엇인가? 이러한 질문들에 대답하기 위해서 본 연구는 1996년부터 2012년까지 EU 28개회원국들의 온실가스 배출 증감률이 교토의정서의 발효와 정부의 이념성향, 녹색당, 거부권행사자, 법치주의 등의 국내정치적 요인에 의해 변화하는 지의 여부를 양적 연구방법을 통해분석했다. 그 결과 교토의정서와 정부이념이 온실가스 감축에 미치는 영향력을 발견할 수있었다. 하지만, 녹색당의 의석비율과 교토의정서와 국내정치적 요인의 상호작용 변수 등은온실가스 감축에 통계적으로 유의한 효과를 나타내지 않았다.

Abstract

Why is there a difference in greenhouse gas emissions between countries? Was the Kyoto Protocol effective in reducing the greenhouse gas emissions of Annex I countries? If so, what is the reason? To answer these questions, I assess the effects of the Kyoto Protocol and political factors, such as government ideology, Green Party, veto players, and the rule of law, for reducing greenhouse gas emissions in 28 member states of the European Union between 1996 and 2012. As a result, I find that when the Kyoto Protocol entered into force for the countries and when left parties dominates government power, greenhouse gas emissions are more likely to decrease. However, Green Party, veto players, and the rule of law do not show any effect on the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions.

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