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A Joint Adjustment Model of Money Stock and Foreign Reserves: Evidence for Korea & Japan

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This study examines the partial adjustment model of foreign reserve holdings first developed by Kim(1983) and provides empirical evidence supporting the cases for Korea and Japan. The theoretical model we consider in this study is a variation of the monetary approach to the balance of payments. Kim asserts that changes in the foreign reserve holdings are a reflection of the optimizing behavior of the public at large and at the same time of the nation’s central bank. This is a single-equation model and is specified in terms of excess demand for money stock and the excess demand for foreign reserves. In this study we attempt to test the hypothesis that foreign reserve holding is the result of jointly achieving the desired levels of money demand and foreign reserve demand taking Japan and Korea. Through empirical analysis, we find that the Korean central bank’s behavior with respect to reserve demand is a bit more apparent than Japan during the sample period. With respect to excess money demand, however, theJapanese pubic seems to be more proactive than the Korean public. This result is consistent with the fact that the Japanese yen is a reserve currency whereas the Korean won is not.

Abstract

This study examines the partial adjustment model of foreign reserve holdings first developed by Kim(1983) and provides empirical evidence supporting the cases for Korea and Japan. The theoretical model we consider in this study is a variation of the monetary approach to the balance of payments. Kim asserts that changes in the foreign reserve holdings are a reflection of the optimizing behavior of the public at large and at the same time of the nation’s central bank. This is a single-equation model and is specified in terms of excess demand for money stock and the excess demand for foreign reserves. In this study we attempt to test the hypothesis that foreign reserve holding is the result of jointly achieving the desired levels of money demand and foreign reserve demand taking Japan and Korea. Through empirical analysis, we find that the Korean central bank’s behavior with respect to reserve demand is a bit more apparent than Japan during the sample period. With respect to excess money demand, however, theJapanese pubic seems to be more proactive than the Korean public. This result is consistent with the fact that the Japanese yen is a reserve currency whereas the Korean won is not.

참고문헌 (14)

  1. Aizenman, "Reserve Uncertainty and the Supply of International Credit", Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 34, pp.631~649 (2002)
  2. Aizenman, "International Reserve Holdings with Sovereign Risk and Costly Tax Collection", The Economic Journal, 114, pp.569~591 (2004)
  3. Bahmani-Oskooee, M., "Are the Adjustment of Actual to Desired International Reserves in Nominal or Real terms?", Applied Economics Letters, 6, pp.573~575 (1999)
  4. Catao, L. V., "Effective exchange rates and the classical gold standard adjustment", The American Economic Review, pp.1259~1275 (2005)
  5. Choi, M. S., "Currency risks hedging for major and minor currencies: Constant hedging vs. speculative hedging", Applied Economics Letters, 17, pp.305~311 (2010)
  6. Edwards, S., "The Demand for International Reserves and Monetary Equilibrium: Some Evidence from Developing Countries", The Review of Economics and Statistics, 66, pp.495~500 (1984)
  7. Ford, J. L., "The Demand for International Reserves in China: An ECM Model with Domestic Monetary Disequilibrium", Economica, 67, pp.379~397 (1994)
  8. Frenkel, J., "Optimal International Reserves: A Stochastic Framework", The Economic Journal, 91, pp.507~514 (1981)
  9. Guender, A. V., "On the Performance of Nominal Income Targeting As a Strategy for Monetary Policy in a Small Open Economy", Journal of International Money and Finance, 23, pp.143~163 (2004)
  10. Kim, I., "A Partial Adjustment Theory of the Balance of Payments", Journal of International Money and Finance, 2, pp.17~26 (1983)
  11. Makin, A. J., "A Monetary Model of Exchange Rate and Balance of Payments Adjustment", Economic Issues, 10, pp.25~36 (2005)
  12. Financial Stability, the Trilemma, and International Reserves, "Obstfeld, M.", NBER, ~, pp.NBER working paper 14217 (2008)
  13. Williams, M., "Foreign Exchange Reserves-How Much is Enough?", BIS Review, pp.1~12 (2006)
  14. Wyplosz, C, "The Foreign Exchange Reserves Buildup: Business as Usual?", Paper Prepared for the Workshop on Debt, Finance and Emerging Issues in Financial Integration in London (2007)

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