한국의 외환보유액 관리정책과 통화정책 간의 관계 분석
Analysis of the Relationship between the Foreign Exchange Reserves Management Policy and the Monetary Policy
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주요 선진국을 제외한 대부분의 국가들은 높은 대외의존도, 국제금융시장 접근성 제한, 외환위기 등에 대응하기 위해 충분한 외환보유액 확보를 주요한 정책과제로 운용하고 있다. 이에 따라 외환보유액에 관한 국내연구도 적정 외환보유액 수준에 초점을 두고 논의가 진행되어왔다. 본 연구는 외환보유액 관리정책이 여타 거시정책에 미친 영향 분석에 초점을 두고 한국의 외환보유액 관리정책과 통화정책 간의 관계를 분석하였다. 실증분석 결과, 외화유동성 유입에 따른 외환보유액의 축적과정에서 확대된 유동성이 완전중화되지 못함에 따라 외환보유액의 확대는 통화정책의 주요 지표인 물가 상승압력, 국내금리 하락압력으로 작용한 것으로 나타났다. 이는 금융시장 개방이 진행되는 상황에서 환율안정을 위한 외환보유액 관리정책과 물가와 금리의 안정을 추구하는 통화정책 간에는 정책목표의 동시달성이 매우 어려우며, 외환보유액 관리정책과 통화정책 목표의 동시달성을 위해서는 조화로운 정책 운용이 필요함을 시사한다.
Abstract
Most countries except major industrialized countries have secured sufficient foreign exchange reserves to cope with high external dependence, limited access to international financial markets, and foreign exchange crisis. As a result, domestic research on foreign exchange reserves has also been discussed, focusing on the appropriate level of foreign exchange reserves. This study analyzed the relationship between Korea’s foreign exchange reserve management policy and monetary policy, focusing on analyzing the impact of foreign exchange reserve policy on other macroeconomic policies. As a result of the empirical analysis, the expansion of foreign exchange reserves acted as inflationary pressure and domestic interest rate downward pressure, as the expansion of foreign exchange reserves could not be fully neutralized in the process of accumulating foreign exchange reserves due to the inflow of foreign currency liquidity. It is very difficult to achieve policy goals simultaneously between the foreign exchange reserve management policy for stabilizing exchange rates and the monetary policy pursuing stabilization of prices and interest rates, and the simultaneous achievement of the foreign exchange reserve management policy and monetary policy objectives. This suggests that harmonious policy management is necessary.
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