경기불확실성이 제조업과 서비스업 노동수요에 미치는 영향 분석
Effects of Economic Uncertainty on the Labor Demand in Manufacturing Industry and Service Industry
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본 연구는 최근 경제성장의 고용창출력이 약화되고 있는 가운데 제조업과 서비스업으로 산업을 구분하여 노동수요 특성의 한 측면을 거시적 차원에서 규명하고자 하였다. 각 산업의 노동수요를 분석함에 있어 외환위기 이후 기업들의 경영형태가 보수적으로 변화함에 따라 중요한 결정요소로 여겨지고 있는 경제의 불확실성을 명시적으로 고려하였다. 구체적으로, 경제내 불확실성을 GARCH 모형을 통해 추정한 후 노동수요가 요소가격과 경제의 평균경기상황 뿐만 아니라 경제 내 불확실성에 어떻게 반응하는지 실증분석을 하였다. 본 연구의 주요결과는 다음과 같다. 첫째, 제조업에 있어 GDP 불확실성이 고용수준에 중요한 결정요인 역할을 하고 있어, 제조업의 경우 경기가 불투명해지면 경직적 비용부담을 줄이기 위하여 실물투자뿐만 아니라 고용도 위축시키는 것을 알 수 있다. 둘째, 제조업과 서비스업 모두 평균 경기상황이 노동수요에 양의 유의한 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 즉, 전 산업에 걸쳐 다른 어떤 변수보다도 경기회복을 통한 노동수요증대를 추구해야 할 것으로 판단된다. 마지막으로, 실질임금수준은 제조업의 경우 노동수요에 큰 영향을 미치지만 서비스업의 경우 영향력이 미미하다. 따라서, 정책당국이 고용확대를 목표로 경기부양책을 추진함에 있어 본 연구가 제시하고 있는 일자리 창출을 위한 거시정책 측면에서의 경기활성화 기본방향은 경기수준을 끌어올리되 지속적이고 일관성 있는 정책을 유지함으로써 경기불확실성이 작아지도록 경제를 운용하여야 한다는 것이다. 어떠한 고용증대정책이라도 장기적으로 안정적 경기활성화와 경기 불확실성의 축소를 기반으로 추진되어야 고용증대의 정책효과가 발생할 수 있다는 점을 시사하고 있다.
Abstract
Recently, there has emerged the symptom of so called "the economic growth without job creation”, which has been analyzed in many studies. This study analyzes the issue in terms of the firms behaviors under the economic uncertainty. As well known, the firms have become to behave conservatively since the foreign exchange crisis, and the economic uncertainty has naturally become one of the crucial determinants in the firms' decision making, especially the demand for labor. The demand for labor is set to be affected by the wage, the average GDP representing the aggregate demand, and uncertainty in the average GDP. Also, in order to see the differences in the characteristics between the industries, we decompose the industry into two ; manufacturing industry and service industry. The main empirical finding can be summarized as follows. First, uncertainty in the average GDP affects negatively the level of employment in manufacturing industry, which reflects the typical firms' reactions of shrinking investment and employment to diminish the burden of the fixed costs. Second, the average GDP turns out to be very important in both industries. Third, the real wage has the significant negative effect in manufacturing industry, while insignificant in service industry. From the empirical results we may draw some important policy implications. The government policy designed to stimulate the economic situation by means of affecting the real demand-side seems to be very successful in terms of increasing the labor demand in both industries. However, this policy should be imposed in the manner that the policy authority maintains the policy as stable and expectable as possible for a long time, so that the economic uncertainty can be kept as little as possible.
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