IT산업에서의 외국인직접투자의 수출⋅입에 대한 영향 분석
The Analysis of Effects of Foreign Direct Investments on Trade in IT Industries
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1988년에서 2007년까지의 20년간 IT분야 외국인직접투자(FDI) 상위 22개국에 대한 패널자료를 바탕으로 국내 IT산업에 대한 FDI의 수출 및 수입에 대한 영향을 분석하였다. FDI의 내생성을 고려하여 FDI의 시차변수를 이용한 도구변수 추정을 시도하였다. 분석 결과 통신 및 방송서비스와 컴퓨터 서비스 등을 포함하는 IT 서비스업 분야의 FDI의 증가가 생산성 파급효과를 통해 IT 제품의 수출을 증대시키고, 수입유발 효과를 통해 수입 역시 뚜렷이 증대시키는 것으로 나타났다. 이중 IT FDI와 수출 간의 보완적 관계는 G7국가에 비해 비G7국가에서 보다 강하게 나타났는데, 이는 비G7국가로의 수출 비중이 지속적으로 증가해온 것과 관련되는 것으로 분석되었다. 또한 IT제품의 수출입이 환율 변화와 구매력 변화에 모두 통계적으로 유의한 반응을 하는 것으로 나타났다.
Abstract
Using the panel data of 22 countries for the period 1988-2007, we analyze the effects of inward FDI on the exports and imports of the Korean IT industry. Using the instrumental variable estimation that tackles the endogeneity of FDI, we show that an increase in the inward FDI in the IT service sector encourages both the exports and imports of IT commodities. On the contrary, an increase in the inward FDI in the IT manufacturing sector does not seem to have statistically significant effects on the trade of IT commodities. In addition, exports of IT commodities are significantly affected by the changes in GDP variables as well as by the changes in exchange rates.
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