경제의 성장과 변동성에 대한 정부지출의 유용성 분석
The Effectiveness of Government Expenditure on Economic Growth and Volatility
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본 연구는 1990년 이후의 가용한 71개 국가 간 불균형 패널자료를 이용하여 정부지출의 크기와 변동성이 경제의 성장과 변동성에 미치는 영향을 파악하였다. 또한 본 연구의 실증분석은 선행연구에서 간과하였던 정부지출의 크기와 변동성의 상호연관성을 고려하면서 이들 변수들이 경제성장에 미치는 직접적인 영향과 함께 경제의 변동성을 통한 간접적인 영향을 추정하였다. 실증분석 결과를 요약하면 다음과 같다. 첫째, 정부지출의 크기는 경제성장에 통계적으로 유의한 음(-)의 영향을 미치지만, 경제의 변동성은 통계적으로 유의한 영향을 미치지 않는 것으로 관측되었다. 둘째, 정부지출의 변동성이 경제성장에 미치는 영향은 미미한 반면, 경제의 변동성을 증폭시키는 역할을 수행하는 것으로 나타났다. 셋째, 국가별 특성을 고려한 모형에서 정부지출의 변동성은 직접적으로 뿐만 아니라 경제의 변동성을 통해 간접적으로 경제성장에 음의 영향을 미치는 것으로 추정되었다. 따라서 실증분석 결과는 1990년대 이후 많은 국가에서 정부지출의 확대가 한계생산성을 증대시키는 역할보다는 민간투자를 구축하고 경제적 왜곡을 창출하는 효과가 크게 나타났음을 의미한다. 또한 이상의 결과는 정부지출의 변동성을 줄임으로써 경제내의 불확실성과 위험을 감소시켜 경제의 변동성 완화에 기여하고 장기적으로 경제성장을 촉진할 수 있음을 시사한다.
Abstract
This paper empirically examines the impacts of government expenditure size and its volatility on economic growth and fluctuation using unbalanced panel data on 71 countries over the period 1990∼2012. Also, it is estimated an indirect impact of the size and volatility of government expenditure on economic growth through economic volatility by considering the inter-correlation between the size and volatility of government expenditure, which ignored in the existing literature. The estimation results are summarized as follows. First, there exists a significant and negative relationship between government expenditure size and economic growth, while the impact of government expenditure size on economic fluctuation is statistically insignificant. Second, the government expenditure volatility works a significant role in increasing the economic fluctuation. Third, it is estimated that government expenditure volatility, both directly and indirectly through economic fluctuation, negatively affects the economic growth. Therefore, the estimation results suggest that the increments of government expenditure crowding out and/or distort private investments in many countries after 1990s. Further, the results also imply that the reduction of government expenditure volatility may increase the economic growth, since it may reduce the economic uncertainties and risks.
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