한국에서의 성장과 빈곤, 불평등
Economic Growth, Poverty and Inequality in Korea
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초록
본 연구는 한국에서 경제성장이 저소득층의 소득을 개선하는지를 평가하기 위해 성장탄력성을 앳킨슨의 일반평균(general means) 개념에 기초한 방법으로 추정하였다. 성장탄력성은 경제의 평균소득 1% 증가가 저소득층 소득을 몇 %를 높이는가를 나타낸다. 기존 성장탄력성 추정 방법론이 가지는 소득 구분 기준의 자의성 문제를 넘어서기 위해 Foster and Székely(2008)에서 처음 시도된 일반평균 기반의 성장탄력성 추정 방법론을 적용했다. 분석 결과, 우리나라의 경우, 저소득층 소득이 단기적으로는 경기 변동에 탄력적으로 반응하지만, 경제성장의 효과는 오래 지속되지 않아, 장기적으로는 경제성장(평균소득증가)에 미치지 못하는 소득 수준으로 수렴하는 것으로 나타났다. 경제성장이 일시적으로는 저소득층의 소득을 높이지만 장기적으로는 더 낮은 소득 수준으로 회귀한다는 것이다. 통제변수 분석에서는, 고용률을 높이는 것이 저소득층 소득 개선에 가장 효과적이었고, 임시일용직 비율은 유의도는 낮았지만 부정적이었으며, 무역의존도 심화도 부정적이었다. 이는 성장 중심 정책에서도 분배적 고려가 필요하고, 저소득층 소득 개선에는 양질의 고용 기회 제공이 중요하다는 점을 시사한다.
Abstract
This study estimates growth elasticities based on the concept of general means of Atkinson(1970) to evaluate how much economic growth enhance income of lower-income group in Korea. The growth elasticity is the % increase of income of lower-income group following 1% increase of average income in the population. Like Foster and Székely(2008), we introduce the method of estimating growth elasticity based on general mean concept to overcome the arbitrariness of income standards used in previous studies. This is to give more weights to lower income groups. The result is that the income of lower-income group converges to lower level than the average income in the long-run although it responds more rapidly to changes of average income in the short-run. While their income more grows faster than the average income in the short-run, it regresses to lower level of income in the long-run. The employment rate is more effective in raising the income of lower-income group, while the ratio of foreign trade to national income is less effective. These imply that re-distribution should be considered even in growth policies, and creating good job opportunities to lower-income groups is very important.
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