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미국의 군사부문 혁신(1977-1991)에 대한 RMA적 사후해석의 극복 : 카터 행정부의 ‘상쇄전략’에 대한 기술 기회론적 분석을 중심으로

Revolution in Military Affairs Revisited : The US Military Innovation(1977-1991) and the Implication of the ‘Offset Strategy’

박상연
국가안보전략연구원 (Institute for National Security Strategy)|2019.03|국가안보와 전략 (National Security and Strategy)|제19권 제1호|pp. 69-114|DOI 10.23111/nsas.2019.19.1.003

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키워드

상쇄전략군사혁신Offset StrategyMilitary innovation공지전투군사부문 혁신해롤드 브라운공세파괴자3차 상쇄전략Revolution in Military Affairs(RMA)Harold BrownAir-Land BattleAssault Breakerthe US Third Offset Strategy
주제분류정치외교학

초록

미국의 최근 국방 혁신 구상인 ‘3차 상쇄 전략’은 국방과학 기술 혁신을 통해 확보된 질적 군사력 우위로 적의 양적 군사력 우위를 ‘상쇄’시켰다는 미국의 전략문화를 반영한다. 기술결정론자들은 미국의 군사혁신(Revolution in Military Affairs, RMA)을 이끌어냈던 브라운 국방부 장관의 2차 ‘상쇄전략’ 의 성과를 근거로 3차 상쇄 전략에 대해 낙관적인 입장을 취하는 반면, 전략중심주의자들은 기술 결정론적 관점에 반대하면서 3차 상쇄 전략도 RMA가 노정한 한계에 직면할 것이라고 주장하면서 회의적인 입장을 취한다. 본고는 브라운 장관이 ‘상쇄전략’이라는 용어를 언급한 적이 없다는 점에 착안하여 ‘상쇄전략’의 실체를 재검토했다. 그 결과, 1977년부터 1991년까지 전개된 미국의 군사부문 혁신에 대한 기존의 서술들은 RMA를 진행하던 기술결정론자와 RMA를 거부하던 전략 중심주의자에 의해 사후적으로재구성되었음을 확인했다. ‘상쇄 전략’은 특정한 관점에 기반을 둔 일관된전략적 행위가 아니었다. 그러나 ‘상쇄 전략’은 위협을 구체적으로 설정하고 위협을 극복할 수 있는 첨단기술의 작전적 활용 개념을 도출하는 한편, 기술의 한계를 동시에 인식했다는 점에서 1980년대에 미국의 합동작전을위한 군사부문 혁신의 토대를 제공했다. 본고는 ‘상쇄전략’이 제공하는 함의를 통해 최근의 ‘3차 상쇄 전략’에 대한 논의도 기술결정론과 전략중심주의의 이분법에서 벗어나야 한다고 주장한다. ‘3차 상쇄전략’이 성공적인 군사부문 혁신으로 이어지려면 현재 위협을 구체적으로 파악하고, 첨단 기술의 전술적 이점을 활용해서 해당 위협을극복할 수 있는 작전적⋅전략적 개념을 모색하는 과정이 선행되어야 한다.

Abstract

In 2014, the US Department of the Defense initiated a new defense innovation initiative named ‘third offset strategy’. This term reflects the strategic culture of the United States which tries to offset adversary’s quantitative military superiority with the qualitative superiority of the US military force achieved by the military technology innovations. Technology determinists who advocate the third offset strategy assert that the ‘second offset strategy’ was an example of successful process of the Revolution in Military Affairs, in which the technological innovations initiated the systemic, operational and organizational innovations in order to employ the new weapon system and sub-systems. However, strategists are skeptical on the perspective of the technology determinists’. This research analyzes the second ‘offset strategy’ of Harold Brown, who was the Secretary of the DoD(1977-1981), based on the fact that he never mentioned the term. By analyzing the historical records and official history of DoD of the United States, the research found that there are hindsight biases on the technology determinists’ and the strategists’ explanations on the US defense innovations between 1977 and 1991. Although Brown’s defense program didn’t have strategic direction, Brown concretely chose the primary threat among the numerous threats, developed the technological concept to offset the primary threat by employing new technologies and recognized the limits of the technological concept. These combined efforts of Harold Brown set the foundation of the United States’ military innovation to the joint operation between 1982 and 1991. From the lessons of the ‘second’ offset strategy, this research criticizes that recent debates on ‘the third offset strategy’ tends to be focused on the dichotomous arguments between the technology determinists and the strategists. The debates on ‘the third offset strategy’ should be based on the concrete threat perception and the clear knowledge about the opportunities and the limits of the new technologies in dealing with that threat.

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