한·중 FTA 협상에 따른 공산품의 민감품목과 관심품목 추정에 관한 연구

Abstract

This paper attempts to estimate the sensitive and interesting items among the Korean manufacturing goods, to which the Korean government can refer in the negotiation of the elimination of tariffs related Korea-China FTA (Free Trade Agreement). The import of the sensitive items from China to Korea is expected to increase far more than the exports from Korea to China, if both the Korean and Chinese governments eliminate tariffs on them. The export of the interesting items from Korea to Chinais expected to increase far more than the imports from China to Korea, if both the Korean and Chinese governments eliminate tariffs on them. This paper assumes that the tariffs on the manufacturing goods between the two countries should converge to zero in the long run. Based on such assumption, we argue that the future trend of the trade between Korea and China should be largely influenced by the competitiveness of the Korean and Chinese manufacturing goods. The competitiveness of the Chinese manufacturing goods (categorized by the 2 digit HS code) over the Korean items is analyzed by examining the ‘Export Similarity Deepening Ratio’ and ‘World Market Share Expansion Ratio’ from 2001 to 2010. After analyzing the competitiveness, it estimates the provisional sensitive and interesting items and analyzes those by examining ‘Trade Partner’s(the Korean or Chinese) Market Share Changing Ratio Index’. After analysis, the items with HS code of 12, 16, 20, 26, 30, 45, 49, 51,57, 73, 81 and 91 are estimated to be the sensitive items. The items with HS code of 17, 33, 37, 54, 59, 79, 85 and 87 are estimated to be the interesting items. Considering the sensitive items of Korea are the interesting items of China, and vice versa, through the elimination of tariffs of Korea-China FTA, the items with HS code of 54, 73, 81, 85 and 87 are expected to greatly increase the amount of the international trade between Korea and China. The international trade of those items between Korea and China has increased year by year, on account of the expansion of the intra-industry trade between the two countries. The dollar amount of the trade of those items between Korea and China has already reached 81.7billion USD (43.4% of total trade) at the year of 2010. This paper also arrives at a conclusion that Korea-China FTA may expedite intra industry trade between Korea and China.