미국의 대중국 무역정책에 영향을 미치는 국내외 요인 분석
An Analysis of External and Internal Factors Influencing US Trade Policy Toward China
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초록
경제학적 관점에서 미중무역전쟁의 원인은 미국의 대중국 무역적자 증가다. 하지만 미중무역전쟁은 무역, 경제 영역을 넘어 지정학적, 지경학적으로 많은 파장을 일으키고 있다. 본 논문은 미중무역전쟁의 원인을 정치경제적 관점에서 고찰해 본다. 미국은 왜 무역전쟁을 일으켰는가? 미국의 대중국 강경정책에 영향을 주는 요인들은 무엇인가? 본 논고는 미국의 대중국 무역정책에 영향을 주는 내외적 요인들을 분석해 보고 미중무역전쟁의 전망에 대해 논의해보고자 한다. 미중무역전쟁의 배경요인은 양국 간의 패권쟁탈전이다. 미국은 중국 경제의 부상과 군현대화가 미국패권에 심각한 위해가 될 것으로 인식하고 있다. 중국의 최첨단 산업 육성은 향후 미국의 상대적 국가 경쟁력을 약화 시킬 수 있다고 보고 있다. 지정학적, 지경학적인 외적 요인이외에도 이익집단들의 로비, 미국의 전통적 외교 사상 등 내적 요인도 대중국 무역정책 결정과정에 지대한 영향을 주고 있다. 대기업과 수출기업의 효과적인 로비로 미중무역전쟁이 다소 완화될 수는 있으나, 미국정부가 민족주의적 성향의 대외정책을 추진하고 있고 패권경쟁이라는 국가 안보에 대한 위기의식이 배경요인으로 강하게 작용하고 있기 때문에 미중무역관계는 앞으로 상당한 난항이 지속될 것으로 예상된다.
Abstract
From an economic perspective, the main cause of US-China trade war is the increasing US trade deficit. However, the trade war has resulted in massive geopolitical and geo-economic ramifications. The paper attempts to find the root causes of the trade war from a political-economic point of view. Why did the United States initiate the trade war? What factors render the US China policy to be hawkish? This article analyzes some external and internal factors bringing effects to bear on US trade policy toward China and tries to foresee the prospect of their trade war. In its background exists US-China hegemonic competition. The United States perceives soaring Chinese economy and military modernization to threaten the US primacy and its growing high-tech industries to weaken US relative competitiveness. Besides geopolitical and geo-economic factors, the politics of interest groups and US traditional foreign policy ideas significantly affect the making of its trade policy toward China. It is expected that effective lobbying by big corporations and export firms might ease US-China trade war. However, the war is more likely to go through a bumpy and rocky ways, considering a nationalist tendency of US policy and a crisis consciousness stemming from US-China hegemonic competition.
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