바이든 시대의 대중국 통상무역전략: 미중패권경쟁의 정치경제적 시각에서
US Trade Policy Towards China Under the Biden Government: a Political Economy Perspective of US-China Hegemonic Competition
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초록
본 논문은 정치경제적 시각에서 바이든 정부의 대중국 통상무역정책을 미중패권경쟁 차원에서 분석하고 예측한다. 바이든 정부의 국가대전략은 중장기적으로는 자유패권주의를 기조로 하되 단기적으로는 혁신경쟁력 강화를 목적으로 보다 공세적인 오바마 2.0의 절충주의에 통상무역 분야에 있어서 잭슨주의를 가미한 형태의 국가대전략으로 내적역량을 강화하면서 국익 중심의 대외전략을 추진할 것으로 보인다. 따라서 바이든 정부의 통상무역전략은 국익증진을 위해 다자협력체제를 활용하는 공세적 다자주의와 특정 목적을 위해 선별적으로 보호무역을 적용하는 표적보호무역주의를 중심으로 전개될 것이다. 중국에 대해서는 아태지역 국가들과의 사안별 경제협력체를 구성하여 중국의 경제무역관행의 변화를 압박하면서 역내국가들의 탈중국화를 도모할 것으로 예측된다.
Abstract
This paper analyzes the Biden’s trade policy towards China in light of US-China hegemonic competition. Eventually, the Biden administration will pursue US liberal hegemony. However, in the short run, it will focus strengthening innovation capability and deploy a compromise between liberal hegemony and offshore balancing in aggressive ways with Jacksonianism in international trade. Its trade policy will be based upon aggressive multilateralism using multilateral cooperation to enhance national interests and a targeted trade protectionism in limited areas. As for China, the administration likely attempts to construct issue-targeted economic cooperative apparatuses in coalition with Asia-Pacific nations to enforce changes of China’s economic and trade practices and pull them out of its economic influence.
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