한국경제에서 성장과 분배：바두리·마글린 모형을 중심으로
Growth and Distribution：An Empirical Result for South Korea by Using Bhaduri and Marglin Model
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초록
본 연구는 포스트케인지언 거시경제학의 한 분야인 칼레츠키적 성장-분배 이론을 한국경제의 경험을 통해 확인하기위해 수행되었다. 구체적인 연구과제는 기능적 소득분배의 변화와 성장 사이의 관계를 1970년～2008년 한국경제를 예로 해명하는 것이다. 이를 위해 수요견인 성장 모형인 칼레츠키적 성장-분배 이론 중 Bhaduri and Marglin 모형(1990)을 바탕으로 한 Hein and Vogel(2008)의 분석방법을 사용한다. 단순방정식 접근법으로 분배율의 변화가 총수요 구성요소 각각에 미치는 영향을 살펴보고 이 부분효과를 합하여 총효과를 도출한다. 분석결과 1%p 이윤몫의 증가, 즉 1%p 노동소득분배율의 감소는 경제성장을 GDP에 대해 -0.3338%p 감소시킨다. 따라서 분석 결과 한국경제는 임금주도형 성장을 했다고 확인되었다.
Abstract
This Study explores the relationship between functional income distribution and economic growth in South Korea from 1970 until 2008. The analysis is based on a demand-driven distribution and growth model for an open economy inspired by Bhaduri and Marglin(1990), which allows for either profit- or wage-led growth. Canges in real wage rate have different effects on the level of employment and output. On the one hand, higher real wages increase demand, which stimulates output. On the other hand, higher real wages the cost of production. This reduces profits, which has a negative effect on investment. The paper builds on the estimation strategy of Hein and Vogel(2008). It applies a single equation approach, estimating the of redistribution on the demand aggregates and summing up these effects in order to obtain the total effect of redistribution on GDP growth. In the single equation approach we find that growth in South Korea has been wage-led. A one-percentage-point increase in the profit share results in a decrease of GDP by 0.3338 percent. This empirical result suggests that the wage-led nature of the growth-regime is much more pronounced in Korea, which is depend on a stronger negative effect on consumption. The paper is organised as follows. The second section describes an open economy model without economic activity by the state which is based on Bhaduri and Marglin (1990) as the theoretical starting point of the analysis. The results of single equation estimations approach to the effects of redistribution on growth in South Korea is described in section 3. Section 4 summarises the whole work.
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