주택 구입과 임차에 대한 선택이 가계 자산포트폴리오에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구

Abstract

Compared with the asset composition of major OECD countries, the asset composition of Korean household is known to have higher recognition of real estate as investment goods with lower ratio of other assets against real estate asset. To find what causes heterogeneous asset portfolio across homeowners and renters in Korea, in which the jeonse (long-term rental market with lump-sum deposit) shows significant dominance, this study aims to find how the choice of being homeowner or renter affects the decision of optimal portfolio. This study performs 10,000 iterations of Monte Carlo simulations by using dataset on housing, stocks, bonds and mortgage rates in Korea from 1987 to 2018. The distribution of expected growth rates for homeowner-households and renter-households is generated and compared with the domestic household portfolio. In this study, homeowner-households are defined as households with no real estate assets other than residential housing. The simulation results are as follows. First, we find that the homeowner-households with LTV over 40% show higher growth rate of wealth in the total study period from 1987 to 2018 compared with the renter-households. However, when pre- and post-global financial crisis (2009) trend is analyzed, homeowner-households with LTV over 40% show higher growth rate of wealth in the post-financial crisis period, while the homeowner-households with over 60% LTV outperform in the pre-financial crisis period. In terms of the risk-adjusted return, homeowner-households outperform renter-households across all the LTV levels. These results confirm that home acquisition with 40-60% of LTV in Korea is more favorable for general wealth formation than renting. Analysis with risk-adjusted wealth portfolio reconfirms that owning house is a better way to establish wealth compared with renting. According to the Survey of Household Finances and Living Condition in 2018, it is common for households with wealth level higher than the house value to take out mortgage loan with 20-40% LTV, while households with wealth less than the house value matches with the simulation results. The mortgage balance of the households with wealth more than the house value decreases to 0-20% level in time, which confirms that the wealthier households initially seek for general wealth creation by taking risk to some extent, and then adjust portfolio management plan to create wealth through risk-adjusted wealth by reducing loan balance afterwards.