선진국과 개발도상국간의 양자투자협정이 해외직접투자를 증가시키는가?
Do Bilateral Investment Treaties Increase Foreign Direct Investment?
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본 연구는 1985년부터 2011년까지 체결된 양자투자협정 (BIT)이 OECD 국가들의 비OECD 국에대한 해외직접투자(FDI)에 미치는 영향을 분석하는데 목적이 있다. 이를 위해 해외직접투자와양자투자협정 데이터를 패널 형태로 구성한 뒤 중력모형을 기반으로 한 고정효과모형을 분석하였다. 이전 연구들과의 차이점은 첫째, 투자대상국을 OECD 가입국과 비가입국으로 구분하여각 그룹을 대상으로 해외직접투자 흐름상의 차이가 존재하는지 확인하였고 둘째, 분석대상기간을 기존 협정을 주도했던 선진국의 BIT 체결건수는 감소하는 반면 개발도상국의 BIT 체결건수가 급증했던 1995년 전․후로 구분하여 시기상 차이점이 있는지 확인하였다. 연도와 국가쌍(Country-pair)을 보정한 고정효과모형 분석결과 모든 그룹과 기간에서 BIT와 FTA는 OECD 국가들의 해외직접투자와 통계적으로 유의한 양의 효과를 갖는 것으로 나타났다. 또한 1995년이후 기간을 분석한 결과 잠재적인 내생성문제를 감안한 강건성 검사에서도 일관됨을 확인하였다.
Abstract
The goal of this paper is to examine the effects of Bilateral Investment Treaty (BIT) on OECD members' Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) toward Non-OECD from 1985 to 2011. For this purpose, we set up the panel data set by combining FDI with BIT and estimate fixed-effects model based on gravity model. There are some differences from pre-research as follows. First, we confirmed the existence of different FDI trends between groups which are separated the targeted-investment country as OECD members or not. Second, we not only extend total periods but also split into two terms to test that a structural break has occured on 1995. As the result, BIT and FTA have significantly positive effects on FDI of OECD countries for all counter groups and periods. Moreover, the results are consistent in robustness check which was a try to correct latent endogeneity problem after 1995.
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