매매가대비전세가비율이 주택가격에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to analyze the effect of Jeonse to purchase price ratio on the housing prices in the seven major cities including Seoul, Busan, Daegu in South Korea. All the variables are macroeconomic and base on the monthly data from January 2000 to october 2014. Multiple regression model is used fo the analysis. First step is to examine whether the structural change in the housing market before and after the global financial crisis by Chow test. The result shows that there are structural change in Seoul, Inchen, Ulsan but not in other cities. Second step is to test how affects the housing prices. The result shows that negatively affects housing prices in most cities. It implies a trade-off between the two objects - stabilization of Jeonse prices and stimulation of housing prices. Based on these finding, it can be argued that the government policy to stabilize the Jeonse markets by stimulating housing prices is not effective in these days. Therefore, the government should make it clear whether the policy targets at stabilizing Jeonse prices or at stimulating housing prices.