소득변동이 주택가격에 미치는 동태적 효과 - 전세가비율과 담보대출규모를 고려할 때
Dynamic Effects of Income Changes on House Prices in the Chonsei System with Loan
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This paper aims to explore a theoretical model explaining the relationship between income and house prices in the Chonsei system of Korea. In theory, the existence of Chonsei housing demand reduces the effects of income on housing prices less elastically than such effects without Chonsei. The Full Information Maximum Likelihood (FIML) method was applied to monthly data of housing sales and Chonsei transactions in seven metropolitan cities of Korea from January 2008 through December 2014 in order to test the hypothesis that income effects on housing price depend on the Chonsei-to-house price ratio. Given theoretical results about the de-leveraging effects of income changes with the Chonsei ratio, the evidence generally supports our hypothesis of the income de-leveraging effect on the Korean housing market with a Chonsei system. This means that a higher Chonsei ratio would mitigate the income effect on housing prices during periods of economic recession. The empirical results indicate that the housing prices of cities such as Seoul and Incheon with lower Chonsei ratios would respond more sensitively to income changes than other cities do. Meanwhile, Seoul with its lower LTV ratio tends to have higher income elasticities in housing prices than other areas. These results provide many policy implications from the literature. If the goal of macroeconomic policies is to stabilize the housing price level, the government needs to deal with housing prices as well as the Chonsei ratio and LTV as part of a microeconomic policy approach.
Abstract
This paper aims to explore a theoretical model explaining the relationship between income and house prices in the Chonsei system of Korea. In theory, the existence of Chonsei housing demand reduces the effects of income on housing prices less elastically than such effects without Chonsei. The Full Information Maximum Likelihood (FIML) method was applied to monthly data of housing sales and Chonsei transactions in seven metropolitan cities of Korea from January 2008 through December 2014 in order to test the hypothesis that income effects on housing price depend on the Chonsei-to-house price ratio. Given theoretical results about the de-leveraging effects of income changes with the Chonsei ratio, the evidence generally supports our hypothesis of the income de-leveraging effect on the Korean housing market with a Chonsei system. This means that a higher Chonsei ratio would mitigate the income effect on housing prices during periods of economic recession. The empirical results indicate that the housing prices of cities such as Seoul and Incheon with lower Chonsei ratios would respond more sensitively to income changes than other cities do. Meanwhile, Seoul with its lower LTV ratio tends to have higher income elasticities in housing prices than other areas. These results provide many policy implications from the literature. If the goal of macroeconomic policies is to stabilize the housing price level, the government needs to deal with housing prices as well as the Chonsei ratio and LTV as part of a microeconomic policy approach.
참고문헌 (31)
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