경기예측 지표를 도입한 사업성 평가모델 구축
A Housing Project Feasibility Test Model Including Market Forecasting Indicators
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Notwithstanding the importance of real estate business cycle indicators in real-estate valuation and models of housing project feasibility, there is still a dearth of academic research and practical methodologies in this area. Feasibility valuation models in prior studies, particularly on domestic housing projects, have not fully considered various economic factors including real-estate policies, supply and demand, location, price and nearby convenience facilities, etc. Consequently, existing valuation models have not been satisfactory in practice because they fail to take into account such significant factors. This paper proposes a quantitative feasibility model which incorporates business cycle forecasting indicators. As a proxy for business cycle indicators, we calculated the BSI (Business Survey Index) ratio which is a modified index of business cycle indicators released by Kookmin Bank. Using this proxy, we analyzed 22 actual housing projects in the Korean domestic market. Empirical results of this new model show stronger correlations with realized feasibilities, with a lead time of 1~6 months. Furthermore, the feasibility model with BSI ratio surpasses models lacking business cycle indicators and has a better Adj R 2 and RMSE. This study hopes to contribute to the literature by providing empirical proof that evaluation models with business cycle indicators can be useful for increasing forecasting accuracy. Also we hope that these findings will prove useful in the development of practical evaluation methodologies for housing project feasibility.
Abstract
Notwithstanding the importance of real estate business cycle indicators in real-estate valuation and models of housing project feasibility, there is still a dearth of academic research and practical methodologies in this area. Feasibility valuation models in prior studies, particularly on domestic housing projects, have not fully considered various economic factors including real-estate policies, supply and demand, location, price and nearby convenience facilities, etc. Consequently, existing valuation models have not been satisfactory in practice because they fail to take into account such significant factors. This paper proposes a quantitative feasibility model which incorporates business cycle forecasting indicators. As a proxy for business cycle indicators, we calculated the BSI (Business Survey Index) ratio which is a modified index of business cycle indicators released by Kookmin Bank. Using this proxy, we analyzed 22 actual housing projects in the Korean domestic market. Empirical results of this new model show stronger correlations with realized feasibilities, with a lead time of 1~6 months. Furthermore, the feasibility model with BSI ratio surpasses models lacking business cycle indicators and has a better Adj R 2 and RMSE. This study hopes to contribute to the literature by providing empirical proof that evaluation models with business cycle indicators can be useful for increasing forecasting accuracy. Also we hope that these findings will prove useful in the development of practical evaluation methodologies for housing project feasibility.
참고문헌 (39)
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