횡단면분포 특성을 이용한 기업의 경기반응 분석
The Cross-Sectional Business Cycle Dynamics of Korean Firms
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초록
경기가 기업활동에 미치는 영향은 대부분 거시총량변수 중심으로 이루어져왔다. 이처럼 기업의 경기반응을 총량적인 측면에서 파악하게 되면 개별기업의 각기 다른 경기반응으로 중요한 특성이 상쇄될 가능성이 있다. 따라서 횡단면분석을 통해 미시적 특징이 보완될 필요가 있다. 본고는 1980년 이후 상장기업과 외부감사대상법인의 매출액변동의 횡단면분포 특성을 이용하여 기업의 경기반응을 분석한다. 분석결과 우리나라 기업의 매출액변동분포는 전형적인 경기변동패턴을 보였으며 또한 경기변동국면에 따라 기업별로 상당히 다르게 영향을 받는 것으로 나타났다. 경기둔화기와, 매출액증가율이 저조한 기업일수록 경기변동에 상대적으로 더 민감하게 영향 받는 것으로 나타났다. 한편 매출액증가율 하위 10∼30%에 속하는 기업군과 제조업이 경기에 상대적으로 더 민감하게 반응하는 것으로 분석되었다.
Abstract
Most studies on business cycle dynamics of firms have centered on the analysis of aggregate macroeconomic variables. If we analyze the responses of firms by using aggregate variables, essential characteristics can be averaged out by heterogeneous responses of firms. It needs to be complemented by microeconomic adjustment behaviors through the cross-sectional analysis. This paper examines the responses of firms to the business cycles using cross-sectional distributions of the sales growth rates by Korean quoted and external audit companies. The results show that there is a significant business cycle pattern to the dynamics of the cross-sectional distributions of the sales growth. There are heterogeneous responses of firms according to business cycle phases. Firms in recession and firms with declining sales growth rates are more sensitive to the business cycle. Moreover, firms at the lower 10∼30% of the distribution of sales growth rates and manufacturing firms are more susceptible to the business cycle.
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