지역 및 주택 특성에 따른 고위험전세 발생 위험 분석

Abstract

This study focused on the current situation where incidents of non-return of deposits due to high-risk Jeonse are rapidly increasing, and attempted to identify the causes of high-risk Jeonse due to the regional and housing characteristics. For this purpose, we used the Korea Center for City and Environment Research’s data on Jeonse-to-Price ratio for each apartment complex across the country to examine the impact of regional characteristics on the rate of high-risk Jeonse complexes in each city, country, and district. Furthermore, we divided individual housing complexes into metropolitan and non-metropolitan groups and empirically analyzed the impact of regional characteristics and individual housing characteristics on the probability of high-risk Jeonse occurrence. The analysis results show that there is a difference in the background of high-risk Jeonse occurring in metropolitan and non- metropolitan areas. First, the ratio of high-risk Jeonse complexes with a Jeonse-to-Price ratio of 80% or more was high in non-metropolitan areas, while the ratio of ultra-high-risk Jeonse complexes with a Jeonse-to-Price ratio of 100% or more was high in the metropolitan area. Second, in the metropolitan area, where Jeonse demand is abundant, the risk of high-risk and ultra-high-risk Jeonse occurs centered on non-apartments, which are substitutes, in a market where there is a shortage of quality apartment Jeonse supply compared to Jeonse demand. Third, in non-metropolitan areas where housing prices are low, when high-quality Jeonse households are supplied in a market with a shortage of Jeonse supply, high-risk Jeonse rentals with a Jeonse-to-Price ratio over 80% easily occur regardless of the housing type. These results demonstrate the need for differentiated response strategies tailored to the characteristics of metropolitan and non-metropolitan areas, and may provide implications when establishing policies to improve the government’s Jeonse system, such as establishing a non-apartment price information disclosure system and implementing a Jeonse-to-Price ratio cap system.