임금보조정책의 고용 및 임금효과
Wage and Employment Effects of Wage Subsidies
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통계청의 고용율, 노동시장참가율, 실업율 자료와 KLIPS로 구성의 효과(composition effects)를 제거하고 구축한 노동의 가격변수를 지역-연도별로 사용하여 Blanchflower-Oswald 류의 지역균형시장 이론에 근거한 Bartik(2001)의 모형을 추정한 결과 저임금 노동시장에서 사용자에게 임금보조를 시행할 경우 임금근로 부문에서의 고용 효과는 큰 것으로 나타났다. 표준화시켜 보고하면 시장임금 대비 10%의 임금보조를 사용자에게 지불할 경우(이 수치는 대략 2010년 기준 100인 이하 사업장에서의 사용자의 사회보험료 부담율과 유사) 저임금근로자(하위 25분위로 정의)의 고용은 약 5.6% 증가하는 것으로 나타났다. 그러나 사용자 임금보조의 임금효과나 근로자 임금보조의 고용 및 임금 효과는 전반적으로 미미하게 나타났다. 한편 사용자 임금보조에 따른 자영업의 임금근로 대체효과는 상당히 커서 총고용 증가효과는 미미한 것으로 나타났다. 현 연구에서처럼 노동수요의 임금탄력성이 클 경우 보조금은 근로자보다는 사용자에게 지급하는 것이 보다 큰 고용효과를 유발하게 된다.
Abstract
Our analysis of data by region-year for the 1999～2008 period reveals that wage subsidy to employers increases employment of low-wage workers substantially: when a 10 percent of the market wage (this figure is approximately equal to the burden of social insurance beared by firms that hire 100 or less employees in 2010) is subsidized to employers, employment of low-wage workers goes up by 5.6%. The large increase in the employment of low-wage workers is mostly offset by concurrent reduction of self-employment, resulting in little change in the total employment. Neither wage effects of wage subsidy to employers nor wage or employment effects of wage subsidy to workers turn out to be important.
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