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한국의 법집행 및 노동시장특성이 범죄발생에 미치는 영향에 관한 실증분석

The Effects on Crime of Law Enforcement and Labor Market Characteristics in Korea: An Empirical Inquiry

변재욱|김일중
한국국제경제학회 (The Korea International Economic Association)|2012.12|국제경제연구 (KUKJE KYUNGJE YONGU)|제18권 제4호|pp. 55-89|DOI 10.17298/kky.2012.18.4.003

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참고문헌

키워드

노동시장Labor Market범죄Crimes범죄공급곡선억지력가설기소확률Crime Supply FunctionDeterrence HypothesisConviction Probability
주제분류경제학

초록

2000년대에 들어와 살인, 강도, 강간, 폭행 등 범죄발생이 심상치 않으며 최근 들어 그 증가세가 더욱 가파르다. 본고의 목적은 한국의 일반범죄공급함수를 추정하는데 있다. 즉 국민의 신체 및 생명뿐만 아니라 재산을 보호하는 활동과 직결된 범죄들의 주요 발생요인들을 파악하고자 한다. 특히 국내에서 아직 시도되지 않았던 두 가지 구체적 목표를 추구한다. 첫째, 추정작업의 가장 핵심으로서, 검거확률은 물론 기소확률과 관련된 ‘억지력가설(deterrence hypothesis)’을 검증한다. 둘째, 지난 40년간 해외 선행연구에서 강조되었던 ‘노동시장여건과 범죄와의 연관성 (labor-crime nexus)’을 중점적으로 탐구한다. 분석결과 우선 두 억지변수들은 높은 수준의 억지력을 발휘했고, 특히 기소확률이 검거확률보다 대체로 더 높은 억지력을 보였다. 기소확률은 그간 하락세를 보였고 그 절대수준도 매우 낮았으므로 이 결과가 주는 정책함의는 커 보인다. 다음으로, 노동시장 관련 변수들에 대해서는 ‘계층(범죄성향)’별 구분이 중요하다는 명제의 유효성이 확인되었다. 대표적으로 한국에서는 청년층의 실업률이 범죄설명에 중요하다. 그리고 소득 또는 임금의 산업별 영향력 차이가 확실히 존재하며, 운수업과 특히 건설업의 역할이 중요해 보인다. 사실 이는 산업 자체라기보다는 저숙련 내지는 저교육 등 인적자본상태를 포착한 결과라 할 수 있다. 따라서 특히 청년층을 위한 인적자본의 개발프로그램과 같은 노동정책은 형사정책과 밀접한 연관성을 갖는다는 결론이 가능하다.

Abstract

The number of conventional crimes in Korea increased very sharply in the 2000s, and is rising even faster recently. We estimate the crime supply function of Korea by using a panel data method, and pursue a couple of first-run specific missions. First, we test the deterrence hypothesis regarding the conviction probability as well as the arrest probability for Korea. Second, we explore the labor-crime nexus that has been emphasized in the literature. Estimation results firmly verify the deterrence power of both probabilities. Yet, conviction mostly turns out to have a higher level of deterrence, which is believed to shed a meaningful implication to criminal policy. As to the labor market characteristics, their disaggregation by the criminal propensity appears to be the most important facet in estimating the crime function. For representative examples, youth unemployment is particularly relevant to crimes and the income or wages make differentiating effects across industries. We submit that these results most probably are capturing the aspect of low-skilled and/or low-educated labors. It thus follows that labor policy selectively designed for enlarging human capital is more closely related to criminal policy than has been treated conventionally. Other policies specifically targeted for crime-prone labors appear to be in serious need in Korea now.

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