범죄발생률과 경기변동 간의 비대칭 구조와 영향요인 분석
The Analysis of Asymmetric Structure between Business Cycle and Criminal Activities and Determinants in Criminal Activities
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본 연구의 목적은 범죄발생과 실업 등 경제적 상황의 시계열적 분포 사이에서 범죄발생률이 경기침체기와 경기회복기에 어떻게 다르게 나타나는지를 분석하는데 있다. 경기회복 내지 경기침체 등 경제적 여건 변화에 따라 과연 범죄행위는 범죄유형별로 어떻게 비대칭적으로 반응하는지를 살펴보기 위해 비대칭 함수를 구성하였다. 실업률을 경제변수로 하여 분석하였을 때 사기범죄발생률의 경우 경기침체기의 증가율이 경기회복기의 증가율을 상회하였다. 강도범죄발생률의 경우에도 경기침체기에 관련 범죄가 오히려 증가하는 것으로 나타났다. 하지만, 5대 강력범죄발생률의 경우 경기회복기의 계수값이 약 2.187 높아 경기회복기에 관련 범죄가 증가하였고 통계적으로도 비대칭 구조가 유의하였다. 경제관련 범죄들은 구직의 기회보다는 소득 수준과 보다 밀접한 관련이 있는 것으로 확인되었다. 범죄유형별 검거율은 범죄발생에 있어서 억제력으로 작용하였다. 궁극적으로 범죄유형별로, 경제활동 제공기회의 여부와 안정적 소득의 지속 여부에 따라, 그리고 이들 경제여건의 경기침체 또는 경기회복 시기에 따라 범죄발생률은 서로 다르게 반응하였다. 이러한 사실은 범죄발생률을 억제하기 위해 물리적, 법제도적 조치 이외 경제적 측면에서 정책적 대안 수립이 필요함을 시사하는 것이다.
Abstract
The purpose of this study was to analyze the asymmetric structure between business cycle and crimes rate. To analyze the asymmetric structure the asymmetric function was employed including the economic variables which represented the recovery and the recession. From the analyzed results when the unemployment was included in the model the fraud crime rate increased more highly in the recession than in the recovery. Also, the robbery crime rate was bigger in the recession than in the recovery. However top 5 felonies rate increased more by 2.187 in the recovery than in the recession, which was significant in asymmetric structure. The crimes with related to economic activity such as property and fraud were more greatly affected by the income level than by the employment opportunities. The crime arrest rates were associated with the decrease of the crime rates as the deterrence. Finally the crime rates were different according to the crime types, the employment opportunities or the stable income level, and the economic conditions. This fact was contributed to establish the economic policy besides the law and the physical restrictions to deter the crime rates.
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