공적개발원조(ODA)가 개발도상국 인간개발지수(HDI)에 미치는 영향 - 시차효과를 중심으로 -
The Impact of Official Development Assistance (ODA) on the Human Development Index (HDI) in Developing Countries - A Focus on the Time Lag Effect -
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본 연구는 인간개발지수(HDI)를 종속변수로 설정하여 공적개발원조(ODA)의 시차 효과를 살펴봄으로써 ODA의 장기 효과성에 대해 분석했다. 1990년부터 2020년까지 개발도상국 115개국을 대상으로 불균형 패널데이터를 구축하여 패널분석을 실시하여 15년의 시차 효과를 포착했다. 실증분석 결과 대륙별 ODA의 효과가 나타났다 사라지는 시점이 상이한 것을 발견했다. 구체적으로 아프리카에서는 장·단기에 걸쳐 원조 효과가 꾸준히 발생했고, 아메리카에서는 일시적으로 효과가 있었으나 대부분의 시기에 통계적 유의성이 없음을 파악했다. 아시아에서는 단기에서는 ODA의 효과가 없었으나 중·장기에 걸쳐 효과가 나타났고, 유럽에서는 일정한 시차를 두고 발생하며, 그 효과가 장기적으로 꾸준히 이어졌으며, 오세아니아의 경우 ODA의 효과가 상당히 오랜 시간이 지난 후에 나타나 상대적으로 짧은 시간 지속되다가 사라졌다. 대륙별로 ODA 효과의 시점이 상이하게 나타난 것은 각 대륙의 ODA의 특성에 기인하는 것으로 파악된다.
Abstract
This study analyzed the long-term effectiveness of Official Development Assistance (ODA) by examining the time lag effect of ODA on the Human Development Index (HDI), with HDI being set as the dependent variable. A panel analysis was conducted using imbalanced panel data from 115 developing countries from 1990 to 2020, capturing a time lag effect of 15 years. Empirical analysis revealed that the effect of ODA varied across continents and had different points of disappearance. Specifically, in Africa, the aid effect consistently occurred in both the short and long term. In the case of the Americas, there was a temporary effect, but it lacked statistical significance for most periods. In Asia, there was no short-term effect, but a significant effect was observed in the medium to long term. In Europe, the effect occurred with a consistent time lag and continued over the long term. As for Oceania, the effect of ODA appeared after a considerable time and lasted for a relatively short period before disappearing. The varying timing of the ODA effect across continents can be attributed to the unique characteristics of ODA in each continent.
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