이명박 정부 출범 이후 북한의 대남 공세: 시기별 내용과 요인 분석

Abstract

North Korea has restricted and at times entirely cut off inter-Korean relations since South Korean President Lee Myung-bak took office in February 2008, as part of a multi-faceted campaign aimed against Seoul. This offensive has been driven by three factors: South Korea’s conservative government, internal jitters caused by North Korean leader Kim Jong-il’s reportedly failing health and a state of diplomatic limbo with the United States. In the beginning of 2008, South Korean policies were the chief factor behind the North’s use of increasingly bellicose rhetoric: Pyongyang viewed the introduction of President Lee’s “Denuclearization, Openness, 3000” campaign as an insult to its communist system. Later that year in August, as rumors that Kim had suffered a stroke spread around the globe, the North stoked tension on the Korean Peninsula in an attempt to solidify domestic unity. Concerns about a propaganda campaign being carried out by South Korean activists and the slow leak of capitalist ideas through the joint industrial complex in Kaesong also fed Pyongyang’s anger. Amid all of this, North Korea’s relations with the United States slid to a stalemate, leading its military to take more aggressive action.