한ㆍ미동맹의 대북한 예방외교: 북핵문제를 중심으로
ROK-U.S. Alliance’s Preventive Diplomacy towards North Korea: A Case Study in the Nuclear Issue
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초록
탈냉전기 국제분쟁관리의 핵심은 냉전기의 봉쇄, 억제, 위기관리 등으로부터 분쟁의 발생 전 단계 또는 초기단계에 개입하여 분쟁을 완화하고 해결하기위한 분쟁예방으로 전환되었다. 분쟁예방을 위한 개념과 수단은 1992년 부트로스 갈리(Boutros Boutros-Ghali) 유엔사무총장이 ‘평화를 위한 제안(An Agenda for Peace)’ 보고서에서 강조한 ‘예방외교(Preventive Diplomacy)’로 구체화되었다. 현재의 북핵문제는 엄밀한 분쟁주기로 볼 때 위기상황 전 단계인 ‘불안정한 평화’ 상황에서 전개되는 예방외교의 단계에 해당한다고 볼 수 있다. 한미는 북한이 플루토늄 재처리를 통하여 핵무기 개발을 진행하고, 한미간에 이견이 증폭되어 동맹기조가 와해되면서 한반도에서 전쟁의 가능성이 급격히 고조되는 상황이 도래하기 전에 북핵문제를 평화적으로 해결하기 위한 적극적 예방외교를 강구해야 할 것이다. 따라서 한미는 6자회담에서 나타난 주요 쟁점에 대한 긴밀한 조율을 통해 구체적이고 신뢰성 있는 선 유인조치의 제시를 고려해야한다. 아울러 위기가 고조될 경우 제재조치를 보완적으로 적용하는 조건부 포용전략에 기반한 현실적인 예방외교전략을 적극적으로 추진해야할 것이다.
Abstract
This article attempts to examine ROK-U.S. alliance’s preventive diplomacy towards North Korean with special reference to recent the nuclear issue. Since the end of the Cold-War, the preventive diplomacy is becoming a significant concept that seeks to resolve disputes before large-scale violence breaks out. In his report Agenda for Peace in 1992, UN Secretary-General, Boutros Boutros-Ghali emphasised the importance of preventive diplomacy to resolve international conflicts. In particular, preventive diplomacy is significant on the Korean peninsula because military tensions continue to exit. Recently, North Korean nuclear problems have emerged as a serious threat to Northeast Asian security. In terms of overall strategy, ROK and U.S. have employed preventive diplomacy―a combination of inducements and sanctions―to stop North Korean nuclear program. This article argues that ROK and U.S. have to coordinate not only common crisis objectives, but also have to consider implementing preventive diplomacy towards North Korea within the context of the alliance. Moreover, ROK and U.S. have to employ ‘conditional engagement strategies’ which rely on positive inducements combined with credible penalties or sanctions in order to achieve peaceful resolution.
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