인도의 전력 공급과 실질GDP의 관계
The Relationship between Electricity Supply, Real GDP and Prices in India
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초록
이 연구는 공적분 검정과 오차수정접근법을 이용한 다변수 계량모델을 통해 인도의 전력공급, 실질GDP, 물가간의 관계를 분석한다. 1980-2011년간의 데이터를 대상으로 한 분석에서 이 연구는 이들 변수 간에 장기균형관계가 확립되어 있음을 발견하였다. 또 이 연구는 전력 공급과 실질GDP 간에 양방향의 인과관계가 존재함을 발견하였다. 전력 공급은 실질GDP에 영향을 미치며 실질GDP는 전력공급에 영향을 미친다는 것이다. 이것은 전력 공급의 제약이 인도의 경제성장에 부정적인 영향을 미칠 수 있다는 것을 의미한다. 따라서 인도 정부는 전력 공급이 원활하게 이루어질 수 있도록 전력 공급 능력을 지속적으로 확충하는 한편, 전력의 효율적 사용을 위한 조치도 취해야 한다.
Abstract
This study analyzes the relationship between electricity supply, real GDP and prices in India within a multivariate framework using cointegration tests and VECM. For annual data for the period 1980-2011, the study finds that long-run equilibrium relationship has been established among these variables. The study finds the presence of bi-directional causality between real GDP and electricity supply. This means that electricity causes real GDP and vice versa. In fast-growing India, electricity shortage may restrain economic growth. Thus this study has some policy implications that India government need to enhance electricity supplying capacity and to induce the economic agents to use electricity efficiently.
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