지방자치단체장의 정치적 요인이 지방채 발행에 미치는 영향에 대한 연구

Abstract

As the welfare demand has increased in recent years, the financial pressure of each local government has intensified. In this situation, the study on the issuance of local government bonds has been continued. However, there is a limit in most studies because they are mainly focusing on institutional factors such as the local autonomy system and limit on total amount of local government bonds issued. In other words, the role of the heads of local governments in establishing the issuance plan of the local government bonds has been ignored. The purpose of this paper is to present empirical evidence for factors affecting issuance of local government bonds by focusing on the political factors of the heads of local governments by using 11 years of local government bonds issuance balance data from 2005 to 2015 which are belonged to 226 cities, counties and districts in the whole country. Between the fixed-effect model and the random-effect model, which is used for panel data analysis, the fixed-effect model was estimated as a suitable model through the Hausman test and therefore selected. The dependent variable is the local government bonds issuance balance. Based on this, the analysis results showed that the local government bonds issuance balance is positively affected when the affiliation party of the heads of local governments is the same with the mayors and provincial governors which are the upper government and the seniority of the heads of governments is high. On the other hand, if the head of local government used to be a government official, the local government bonds are issued conservatively and therefore it negatively affects the local government bonds issuance balance. In social and economic factors, the debt-to-budget ratio and the allocation of the grants-in-aid per capita have a positive effect on the local government bonds issuance balance and the allocation of the local subsidy tax per capita has a negative effect. The regionalism, a political factor, and the institutional factor to include projects subject to the issuance of the local government bonds in the mid-term local financial plan affect the local government bonds issuance balance in negative direction.