‘통합된 집단’에서 ‘분화된 주체’로: 트럼프 시대 라티노 정치 재편의 구조적 요인
From a ‘Unified Bloc’ to ‘Differentiated Subjects’: Structural Factors of Latino Political Realignment in the Trump Era
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This study analyzes the growing political diversification and the rise of conservatism among Latino voters in the United States, a trend that has deepened since the Trump era. Once regarded as a stable Democratic constituency, the Latino electorate has undergone a structural transformation marked by the emergence of a conservative bloc and internal ideological fragmentation. The analysis identifies five interrelated factors driving this political differentiation: stratification by legal status, economic class division and labor market competition, discursive framing and affective politics, crossclass solidarity and the rise of multiracial populism, and generational and nationalorigin diversity leading to the dehomogenization of political identity. These factors operate in mutually reinforcing ways, and Trump strategically politicized these latent internal cleavages to expand his political base. The rise of Latino conservatism has broadened the spectrum of political demands while simultaneously dispersing the group’s collective influence. Moreover, the institutional configuration of American federalism and the twoparty system constrains the prospects for permanent Latino political reintegration. One pole consists of conservative Latinos—those emphasizing legality, economic achievement, and individual mobility—who have strengthened their alignment with the Republican Party. The other pole comprises progressive Latinos—those more vulnerable to institutional exclusion—who have deepened their attachment to the Democratic Party. These developments indicate a paradigmatic shift in Latino politics from a unified minority bloc to a network of differentiated political actors that form issuebased and contingent coalitions. How the structurally rigid twoparty system will absorb or adapt to these pluralized Latino demands remains a critical question for future research.
Abstract
This study analyzes the growing political diversification and the rise of conservatism among Latino voters in the United States, a trend that has deepened since the Trump era. Once regarded as a stable Democratic constituency, the Latino electorate has undergone a structural transformation marked by the emergence of a conservative bloc and internal ideological fragmentation. The analysis identifies five interrelated factors driving this political differentiation: stratification by legal status, economic class division and labor market competition, discursive framing and affective politics, crossclass solidarity and the rise of multiracial populism, and generational and nationalorigin diversity leading to the dehomogenization of political identity. These factors operate in mutually reinforcing ways, and Trump strategically politicized these latent internal cleavages to expand his political base. The rise of Latino conservatism has broadened the spectrum of political demands while simultaneously dispersing the group’s collective influence. Moreover, the institutional configuration of American federalism and the twoparty system constrains the prospects for permanent Latino political reintegration. One pole consists of conservative Latinos—those emphasizing legality, economic achievement, and individual mobility—who have strengthened their alignment with the Republican Party. The other pole comprises progressive Latinos—those more vulnerable to institutional exclusion—who have deepened their attachment to the Democratic Party. These developments indicate a paradigmatic shift in Latino politics from a unified minority bloc to a network of differentiated political actors that form issuebased and contingent coalitions. How the structurally rigid twoparty system will absorb or adapt to these pluralized Latino demands remains a critical question for future research.