CMIP5 자료를 활용한 우리나라 미래 해수면 상승
Future Sea Level Projections over the Seas Around Korea from CMIP5 Simulations
2
조회
0
다운로드
8
인용
0
참고문헌
키워드
초록
This study presents future potential sea level change over the seas surrounding Korea using Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 9 model ensemble result from Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), downloaded from icdc.zmaw.de. At the end of 21st century, regional sea level changes are projected to rise 37.8, 48.1, 47.7, 65.0 cm under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 scenario, respectively with the large uncertainty from about 40 to 60 cm. The results exhibit similar tendency with the global mean sea level rise (SLR) with small differences less than about 3 cm. For the East Sea, the Yellow Sea, and the southern sea of Korea, projected SLR in the Yellow Sea is smaller and SLR in the southern sea is larger than the other coastal seas. Differences among the seas are small within the range of 4 cm. Meanwhile, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO) data in 23 years shows that the mean rate of sea level changes around the Yellow Sea is high relative to the other coastal seas. For sea level change, contribution of ice and ocean related components are important, at local scale, Glacial Isostatic Adujstment also needs to be considered.
Abstract
This study presents future potential sea level change over the seas surrounding Korea using Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 9 model ensemble result from Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), downloaded from icdc.zmaw.de. At the end of 21st century, regional sea level changes are projected to rise 37.8, 48.1, 47.7, 65.0 cm under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 scenario, respectively with the large uncertainty from about 40 to 60 cm. The results exhibit similar tendency with the global mean sea level rise (SLR) with small differences less than about 3 cm. For the East Sea, the Yellow Sea, and the southern sea of Korea, projected SLR in the Yellow Sea is smaller and SLR in the southern sea is larger than the other coastal seas. Differences among the seas are small within the range of 4 cm. Meanwhile, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO) data in 23 years shows that the mean rate of sea level changes around the Yellow Sea is high relative to the other coastal seas. For sea level change, contribution of ice and ocean related components are important, at local scale, Glacial Isostatic Adujstment also needs to be considered.
참고문헌 (20)
- John A. Church, "Estimates of the Regional Distribution of Sea Level Rise over the 1950–2000 Period", Journal of Climate, 17(13), pp.2609~2625 (2004), American Meteorological Society[DOI]
- Church, J. A., "Climate Change 2013 - The Physical Science Basis: Working Group I Contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change", pp.1137~1216 (2013), Cambridge University Press
- Abdelali Fadil, "Evidence for a slow subsidence of the Tahiti Island from GPS, DORIS, and combined satellite altimetry and tide gauge sea level records", Comptes Rendus Geoscience, 343(5), pp.331~341 (2011), Elsevier BV[DOI]
- Gordon, A. L., "Pacific decadal oscillation and sea level in the Japan", East sea, 2004, pp.51, 653~663
- 하경자, "복합위성자료(Topex", Poseidon, Jason-1, ERS, Envisat)를 이용한 한반도 주변해역에서의 해수면 고도 변화와 해수면 온도의 상관성 연구, 2006, pp.22(6), 519~531[DOI]
- B. D. Hamlington, "Reconstructing sea level using cyclostationary empirical orthogonal functions", Journal of Geophysical Research, 116(C12) (2011), American Geophysical Union (AGU)[DOI]
- Huang, C., "Sea level rise projection in the South China Sea from CMIP5 models", Acta Oceanol. Sin., 34, pp.31~41 (2015)
- Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis: Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC, "IPCC.", 1009~ (2007)
- IPCC., "Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis: Working Group I Contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change", pp.1552~ (2013), Cambridge University Press
- 정태성, "해안개발과 기후변화로 인한 서해 연안해역의 평균해수면 변화", 한국해안·해양공학회논문집, 26(3), pp.120~130 (2014), 한국해안,해양공학회[DOI]
- Kang, S. K., "Patterns of recent sea level rise in the East", Japan Sea from satellite altimetry and in situ data, 2005, pp.110, C07002~
- Levitus, S., "Warming of the world ocean, 1955-2003", Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, pp.L02604~ (2005)
- Christopher M. Little, "Uncertainty in Twenty-First-Century CMIP5 Sea Level Projections", Journal of Climate, 28(2), pp.838~852 (2015), American Meteorological Society[DOI]
- Kewei Lyu, "Time of emergence for regional sea-level change", Nature Climate Change, 4(11), pp.1006~1010 (2014), Springer Science and Business Media LLC[DOI]
- G. A. Meehl, "How Much More Global Warming and Sea Level Rise?", Science, 307(5716), pp.1769~1772 (2005), American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)[DOI]
- Nicholls, R. J., "Sea-level rise and its impact on coastal zones", Science, 328, pp.1517~1520 (2010)[DOI]
- A. B. A. Slangen, "Projecting twenty-first century regional sea-level changes", Climatic Change, 124(1-2), pp.317~332 (2014), Springer Science and Business Media LLC[DOI]
- White, N. J., "Coastal and global averaged sea level rise for 1950 to 2000", Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, pp.L01601~ (2005)
- Yin, J., "Model projections of rapid sea-level rise on the northeast coast of the Unites States", Nat. Geosci., 2, pp.262~266 (2009)[DOI]
- 윤종주, "우리나라 조위관측소의 장기간 해수면 변화 분석", 한국방재학회논문집, 12(3), pp.299~305 (2012), 한국방재학회[DOI]