본문 바로가기
KERD
논문KCI 등재

HadGEM2-AO 기반의 빙상과 빙하에 의한 미래 해수면 변화 전망

Projection of Future Sea Level Change Based on HadGEM2-AO Due to Ice-sheet and Glaciers

2

조회

0

다운로드

0

인용

0

참고문헌

키워드

주제분류대기과학

초록

Global warming causes various problems such as the increase of the sea surface temperature, the change of coastlines, ocean acidification and sea level rise. Sea level rise is an especially critical threat to coastal regions where massive population and infrastructure reside. Sea level change is affected by thermal expansion and mass increase. This study projected future sea level changes in the 21st century using the HadGEM2-AO with RCP8.5 scenario. In particular, sea level change due to water mass input from ice-sheets and glaciers melting is studied. Sea level based on surface mass balance of Greenland ice-sheet and Antarctica ice-sheet rose 0.045 m and 0.053 m over the period 1986~2005 to 2081~2100. During the same period, sea level owing to dynamical change on Greenland ice-sheet and Antarctica ice-sheet rose 0.055 m and 0.03 m, respectively. Additionally, glaciers melting results in 0.145 m sea level rise. Although most of the projected sea level changes from HadGEM2-AO are slightly smaller than those from 21 ensemble data of CMIP5, both results are significantly consistent each other within 90% uncertainty range of CMIP5.

Abstract

Global warming causes various problems such as the increase of the sea surface temperature, the change of coastlines, ocean acidification and sea level rise. Sea level rise is an especially critical threat to coastal regions where massive population and infrastructure reside. Sea level change is affected by thermal expansion and mass increase. This study projected future sea level changes in the 21st century using the HadGEM2-AO with RCP8.5 scenario. In particular, sea level change due to water mass input from ice-sheets and glaciers melting is studied. Sea level based on surface mass balance of Greenland ice-sheet and Antarctica ice-sheet rose 0.045 m and 0.053 m over the period 1986~2005 to 2081~2100. During the same period, sea level owing to dynamical change on Greenland ice-sheet and Antarctica ice-sheet rose 0.055 m and 0.03 m, respectively. Additionally, glaciers melting results in 0.145 m sea level rise. Although most of the projected sea level changes from HadGEM2-AO are slightly smaller than those from 21 ensemble data of CMIP5, both results are significantly consistent each other within 90% uncertainty range of CMIP5.

참고문헌 (54)

  1. : A dataset of global glacier outlines, "Global land Ice Measurements from Space initiative (GLIMS) Tech. Rep", 2012, 35~
  2. V. K. Arora, "Carbon emission limits required to satisfy future representative concentration pathways of greenhouse gases", Geophysical Research Letters, 38(5) (2011), American Geophysical Union (AGU)[DOI]
  3. 백희정, "Climate Change in the 21st Century Simulated by HadGEM2-AO under Representative Concentration Pathways", Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 49(5), pp.603~618 (2013), 한국기상학회
  4. David B. Bahr, "Sea-level rise from glaciers and ice caps: A lower bound", Geophysical Research Letters, 36(3) (2009), American Geophysical Union (AGU)[DOI]
  5. Bi, D., "The ACCESS coupled model:description, control climate and evaluation", Aust. Meteor. Oceanogr. J, 63, pp.41~64 (2013)
  6. John A. Church, "Sea-Level Rise from the Late 19th to the Early 21st Century", Surveys in Geophysics, 32(4-5), pp.585~602 (2011), Springer Science and Business Media LLC[DOI]
  7. Clark, J. A., "Predicted relative sealevel changes (18,000 Years B.P. to Present) caused by late-glacial retreat of the Antarctic ice sheet", Qua. Res, 11, pp.279~298 (1979)
  8. W. J. Collins, "Development and evaluation of an Earth-System model – HadGEM2", Geoscientific Model Development, 4(4), pp.1051~1075 (2011), Copernicus GmbH[DOI]
  9. A. J. Cook, "Overview of areal changes of the ice shelves on the Antarctic Peninsula over the past 50 years", The Cryosphere, 4(1), pp.77~98 (2010), Copernicus GmbH[DOI]
  10. Delworth, T. L., "CM2Global coupled climate models. Part I: Formulation and simulation characteristics", J. Climate, 19, pp.643~674 (2006)
  11. Dix, M., "The ACCESS coupled model: documentation of core CMIP5 simulations and initial results", Aust. Meteor. Oceanogr. J, 63, pp.83~99 (2013)
  12. Leo J. Donner, "The Dynamical Core, Physical Parameterizations, and Basic Simulation Characteristics of the Atmospheric Component AM3 of the GFDL Global Coupled Model CM3", Journal of Climate, 24(13), pp.3484~3519 (2011), American Meteorological Society[DOI]
  13. J.-L. Dufresne, "Climate change projections using the IPSL-CM5 Earth System Model: from CMIP3 to CMIP5", Climate Dynamics, 40(9-10), pp.2123~2165 (2013), Springer Science and Business Media LLC[DOI]
  14. Dunne, J. P., "GFDL’s EMS2 Global coupled climate-carbon earth system models. Part I:Physical formulation and baseline simulation characteristics", J. Clmate (2012)[DOI]
  15. John P. Dunne, "GFDL’s ESM2 Global Coupled Climate–Carbon Earth System Models. Part II: Carbon System Formulation and Baseline Simulation Characteristics", Journal of Climate, 26(7), pp.2247~2267 (2013), American Meteorological Society[DOI]
  16. X. Fettweis, "Estimating the Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance contribution to future sea level rise using the regional atmospheric climate model MAR", The Cryosphere, 7(2), pp.469~489 (2013), Copernicus GmbH[DOI]
  17. Peter R. Gent, "Response to Increasing Southern Hemisphere Winds in CCSM4", Journal of Climate, 24(19), pp.4992~4998 (2011), American Meteorological Society[DOI]
  18. H. Goelzer, "Sensitivity of Greenland Ice Sheet Projections to Model Formulations", Journal of Glaciology, 59(216), pp.733~749 (2013), Cambridge University Press (CUP)[DOI]
  19. Stephen M. Griffies, "Physical processes that impact the evolution of global mean sea level in ocean climate models", Ocean Modelling, 51, pp.37~72 (2012), Elsevier BV[DOI]
  20. Gornitz, V., "Impacts of sea level rise in the New York City metropolitan area", Glob. Planet. Change, 32, pp.61~88 (2001)
  21. 허태경, "CMIP5 자료를 활용한 우리나라 미래 해수면 상승", 대기, 28(1), pp.25~35 (2018), 한국기상학회[DOI]
  22. Huss, M., "A new model for global glacier change and sea-level rise", Front. Earth Sci, 3, pp.54~ (2015)[DOI]
  23. IPCC, "Observations: Oceanic Climate Change and Sea Level. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis", pp.385~432 (2007), Cambridge University Press
  24. IPCC, "Sea Level Change. Climate Change 2013:The Physical Science Basis", pp.1137~1216 (2013), Cambridge University Press
  25. IPCC, "Climate Change 2014: Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change", pp.151~ (2014), Cambridge University Press
  26. IPCC, "Summary for Policymakers. Global Warming of 1.5oC", World Meteorological Organization, 32~ (2018)
  27. T. Iversen, "The Norwegian Earth System Model, NorESM1-M – Part 2: Climate response and scenario projections", Geoscientific Model Development, 6(2), pp.389~415 (2013), Copernicus GmbH[DOI]
  28. N. Bellouin, "The HadGEM2 family of Met Office Unified Model climate configurations", Geoscientific Model Development, 4(3), pp.723~757 (2011), Copernicus GmbH[DOI]
  29. B. Marzeion, "Past and future sea-level change from the surface mass balance of glaciers", The Cryosphere, 6(6), pp.1295~1322 (2012), Copernicus GmbH[DOI]
  30. Meier, M. F., "Glaciers dominate eustatic sea-level rise in the 21st century", Science, 317, pp.1064~1067 (2007)
  31. B. Meyssignac, "Regional Sea Level Changes for the Twentieth and the Twenty-First Centuries Induced by the Regional Variability in Greenland Ice Sheet Surface Mass Loss", Journal of Climate, 30(6), pp.2011~2028 (2017), American Meteorological Society[DOI]
  32. Mitrovica, J. X., "Recent mass balance of polar ice sheets inferred from patterns of global sea-level change", Nature, 409, pp.1026~1029 (2001)
  33. R. J. Nicholls, "Sea-Level Rise and Its Impact on Coastal Zones", Science, 328(5985), pp.1517~1520 (2010), American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)[DOI]
  34. Faezeh M. Nick, "Future sea-level rise from Greenland’s main outlet glaciers in a warming climate", Nature, 497(7448), pp.235~238 (2013), Springer Science and Business Media LLC[DOI]
  35. Peltier, W. R., "Global glacial isostasy and the surface of the ice-age earth: The ICE-5G (VM2) model and GRACE", Annu. Rev. Earth Planet Sci, 32, pp.111~149 (2004)
  36. Thomas Phillips, "Cryo-hydrologic warming: A potential mechanism for rapid thermal response of ice sheets", Geophysical Research Letters, 37(20) (2010), American Geophysical Union (AGU)[DOI]
  37. H. D. Pritchard, "Antarctic ice-sheet loss driven by basal melting of ice shelves", Nature, 484(7395), pp.502~505 (2012), Springer Science and Business Media LLC[DOI]
  38. Radić, V., "Regional and global volumes of glaciers derived from statistical upscaling of glacier inventory data", J. Geophys. Res, 115, pp.F01010~ (2010)[DOI]
  39. Valentina Radić, "Regional and global projections of twenty-first century glacier mass changes in response to climate scenarios from global climate models", Climate Dynamics, 42(1-2), pp.37~58 (2014), Springer Science and Business Media LLC[DOI]
  40. Rotstayn, L. D., "Aerosol- and greenhouse gas-induced changes in summer rainfall and circulation in the Australasian region: a study using single-forcing climate simulations", Atmos. Chem. Phys, 12, pp.6377~6404 (2012)
  41. A. B. A. Slangen, "An assessment of uncertainties in using volume-area modelling for computing the twenty-first century glacier contribution to sea-level change", The Cryosphere, 5(3), pp.673~686 (2011), Copernicus GmbH[DOI]
  42. A. B. A. Slangen, "Towards regional projections of twenty-first century sea-level change based on IPCC SRES scenarios", Climate Dynamics, 38(5-6), pp.1191~1209 (2012), Springer Science and Business Media LLC[DOI]
  43. A. B. A. Slangen, "Projecting twenty-first century regional sea-level changes", Climatic Change, 124(1-2), pp.317~332 (2014), Springer Science and Business Media LLC[DOI]
  44. Van de Wal, R. S. W., "Modelling the response of glaciers to climate change by applying volume-area scaling in combination with a high resolution GCM", Climate Dyn, 18, pp.359~366 (2001)
  45. Bert L.A. Vermeersen, "Sea-level change in the Dutch Wadden Sea", Netherlands Journal of Geosciences, 97(3), pp.79~127 (2018), Cambridge University Press (CUP)[DOI]
  46. A. Voldoire, "The CNRM-CM5.1 global climate model: description and basic evaluation", Climate Dynamics, 40(9-10), pp.2091~2121 (2013), Springer Science and Business Media LLC[DOI]
  47. E. M. Volodin, "Simulating present-day climate with the INMCM4.0 coupled model of the atmospheric and oceanic general circulations", Izvestiya, Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics, 46(4), pp.414~431 (2010), Pleiades Publishing Ltd[DOI]
  48. Knut von Salzen, "The Canadian Fourth Generation Atmospheric Global Climate Model (CanAM4). Part I: Representation of Physical Processes", Atmosphere-Ocean, 51(1), pp.104~125 (2013), Informa UK Limited[DOI]
  49. Yoshihide Wada, "Past and future contribution of global groundwater depletion to sea-level rise", Geophysical Research Letters, 39(9) (2012), American Geophysical Union (AGU)[DOI]
  50. Masahiro Watanabe, "Improved Climate Simulation by MIROC5: Mean States, Variability, and Climate Sensitivity", Journal of Climate, 23(23), pp.6312~6335 (2010), American Meteorological Society[DOI]
  51. Masahiro Watanabe, "Convective Control of ENSO Simulated in MIROC", Journal of Climate, 24(2), pp.543~562 (2011), American Meteorological Society[DOI]
  52. Meteorological Research Institute Earth system model Version 1 (MRI-ESM1)-Model description, "Yukimoto, S.", 83~, pp.Tech. Rep. MRI, no. 64 (2011)
  53. Seiji YUKIMOTO, "A New Global Climate Model of the Meteorological Research Institute: MRI-CGCM3 ^|^mdash;Model Description and Basic Performance^|^mdash;", Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan, 90A(0), pp.23~64 (2012), Meteorological Society of Japan[DOI]
  54. Zuo, Z., "Contribution of glacier melt to sea-level rise since AD 1865: a regionally differentiated calculation", Climate Dyn, 13, pp.835~845 (1865)

관련 논문AI추천

이 간행물의 다른 논문 (12건)