인구, 총일자리, 산업별 일자리 사이의 인과관계

Abstract

This research examines causality among population, total jobs and jobs-by-industry using metro cities and provinces data from 1996 to 2006 in Korea. Many people believe that population and jobs are in a mutual causal relation. Traditionally urban economic theories explain changes in spatial structure under the assumption that employment is a cause of population change. In regional economics there is a deep-rooted belief that the increase in production of an industry leads to the increase in other relating-industries' production and jobs. But these believes lack verified foundations. Estimating SUR equations, this research finds population increase is generally a cause of job increase, but not vice versa. In terms of jobs, inter-industry relations are weaker than expected. There are even cases that the increase in an industry's job leads to the decrease in other industries' job. Interestingly localization economy and large company are found important in creating jobs. Job creation by supporting small and medium enterprises and temporary employees will be more effective in a close network and cooperation with large companies.