중국의 개혁개방과 북한

Abstract

This article focuses on North Korea's economic reform and open door policy and it's possibility of success in terms of initial economic condition of Chinese experiences. It was already 30 years since China reformed socialist economic system and open domestic market to the world in 1978, It has been evaluated that China has most successfully transformed economic system among the socialist countries. Many studies agree to regard initial conditions of economy as very important factor in successful consequences of Chinese economic reform and open door policy. It is also construed that mobilization of political instrumentation and propulsion methodology were very valid. Although North Korea adopt Chinese economic reform's experiences, we can not certify that North Korea would reform successfully its own inefficient economic system if North Korea and China didn't share similar economic initial conditions like level of socialist economic planning, stability of political regime, decentralization of policy and budget, possibility of marketization, and so on. This paper, firstly, clarifies a concept of initial economic conditions related with successful economic transformation. Secondly, using that concept, it try to evaluate chinese economic reform and open door policy. Thirdly, this study compares initial economic conditions of North Korea with China. A studies in this article suggest us that North Korea economy can not adopt easily chinese economic reform policy because there are so many obstacles and barriers. we can summarize North Korea faced difficulties comparing with chinese experiences: ① high industrialized economic structure and complexity of military and industry, ② minus economy growth rate in the long term, ③ scarcity of capital and low growth rate of saving and investment, ④ isolated economy from international market, ⑤ vertical authorized political system and people's distrust to regime, ⑥ centralized planning economic system and barrier for development of market, ⑦ existence of competitive neighbor countries like South Korea and China, ⑧ unsustainable high social welfare system and foreign debt, and so on. As a result, it is so difficult that North Korea would achieve common successful chinese economic transformation because North Korea faced with different initial economic conditions from China. But how to utilize inter-korean economic cooperation would be a key factor of initial conditions for significant transformation and economic growth in North Korea. This key factor related with only similarity of chinese initial economic condition, it would activate so strongly North Korea's economic growth and transformation as well as China mobilized foreign chinese capital, internationalized experiences and technology like Hong Kong and Taiwan.