2012년 미국대선 오바마민주당후보와 롬니공화당후보의 북한정책 비교연구
A Comparative Study of North Korea Policy of Obama Candidate and Romney Candidate for the 2012 U.S. Presidential Election
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본 연구는 쇠퇴하는 패권국이 기존 질서를 위협하는 도전국에 대해 어떠한 행태를 취할 것인가를 규명하는데 연구 목적이 있다. 구체적으로 미국이 미국중심의 국제질서를 지탱하는 핵심적 요소인 핵비확산국제규범을 정면으로 위협하는 북한에 대해 어떠한 정책을 취할 것인가를 파악하는데 집중한다. 이에 본 연구는 미국 차기정부를 구성할 오바마민주당후보와 롬니공화당후보의 대북정책을 비교 연구하여 쇠퇴하는 패권국의 도전국에 대한 정책을 규명한다. 연구결과 오바마후보는 쇠퇴를 저지하기 위해 군비를 축소하고 한국과 일본 등에 역할을 분담하는 등 ‘역외균형전략’과 압도적 군사력을 바탕으로 개입하는 ‘선택적 개입전략’을 동시에 추진하는 것으로 평가되고 있다. 반면 롬니후보는 한국과 일본과의 동맹 강화를 통해 북한을 압박하는 '선택적 개입전략‘과 MD체제 구축과 선제공격 고려 등 예방공격과 군비 증강을 병행하는 ’지구패권전략‘을 함께 추진할 것으로 판단된다. 이런 연구결과는 오바마후보가 재집권할 경우 경제회복을 위해 군비를 축소하며 한국과 일본과의 동맹강화로 북한을 봉쇄하고 북한의 대화의사가 분명할 경우에만 선택적으로 대화하는 “전방위 봉쇄속 조건부 대화정책”을 추진할 것을 보여주고 있다. 반면 롬니정권은 예방적 공격까지를 고려하는 등 봉쇄의 강도를 극대화하여 북한의 붕괴를 유도하는 “자체붕괴 유도의 고도 봉쇄정책” 채택을 예상하게 한다.
Abstract
This study is to define the foreign policy choices that a declining hegemony adopts toward challenging state which undermining existing international order. Specifically it attempts to find the foreign polices that next U.S. government adopts toward North Korea which undermines nuclear nonproliferation norm that has supported the U.S. dominating international order. For the purpose, it compares and contrasts the North Korean policies of Obama Candidate of Democratic Party with those of Romney Candidate of Republican Party who run for the 2012 U.S. Presidential election. The results of the analysis confirm that Obama Candidate may adopt an offshore balancing strategy which emphasizes arms reduction and burden shifting to allies as well as a selective engagement strategy that stresses strengthening alliance with South Korea and Japan and overwhelming military capabilities to contain and prevent North Korea from undermining existing order. On the contrary, Romney Candidate likely pursues a selective engagement strategy that focuses on enhancement of alliance as well as a global hegemony strategy which emphasizes arms buildup. In that sense, it may anticipate Obama next government may adopt a "Omnidirectional Containment policy with conditional dialogue" since it emphasizes more on the recovery of economy and avoids unnecessary military conflicts with North Korea. On the other hand, Romney next administration may pursue "an absolute high-degree containment policy" which includes preemptive attacks toward North Korea to lead it to self-destruction.
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