경기도 잠재성장률 및 성장 기여도 추정임

Abstract

The local government's fiscal burden has been growing over time in Korea. Specially, the expansionary fiscal policy to stimulate the economy and the increase of welfare spending make the expenditure of the government escalate in Gyunggi-Do. On the other hand, the depression of the housing market and the slowdown of the economy make the revenue base of the government weaken. So the expenditure is increasing more rapidly than the revenue in Gyunggi-Do. In addition, it is very difficult to be expected that the growth rate of the economy can be raised because of the global economic crisis. So, it is very important to diagnose the economy of Gyunggi-Do. The growth rate of the economy is the one of the indexes to explain the current economy. If the economic growth rate is increasing, the size of the economy is growing. There is the index to explain the future economy called the potential growth rate of the economy. And contribution of production factors to the growth rate is also important to detect the challenging economy. This paper is trying to estimate the potential growth rate and the contribution of production factors to the growth rate by the industry. HP filtering and CF filtering are used to measure the potential growth rate. And the contribution to the growth rate is estimated by the production function approach. The summary of the analysis is that the potential growth rate in Gyunggi-Do is higher than in Korea(nationwide size) but the variance of the GDP gap in Gyunggi-do is larger than Korea. Specially the large variance of the GDP gap can pose a threat to the future economy in Gyunggi-do. In addition, the effect of the total factor productivity on the economy in Gyunggi-Do is smaller than on the Korean economy. It means that Gyunggi-Do should make the policy to create high added value.