민주주의 국가에 있어 국제협력 및 국제분쟁에 대한 국내변수의 영향:
Domestic Factors on Interstate Cooperation and Conflict in Democratic States: Empirical Analysis with Time-Series Analysis
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본 논문은 국제협력연구가 Tit-For-Tat라는 상호호혜관계에만 중점을 두어 분석을 추진해온 것에 대한 이론적 반성과 새로운 이론적 대안의 모색을 위한 연구의 일환으로 시작하였다. 국가 간의 협력에 영향을 주는 요인을 양자관계에서 상대방의 행위에서 찾아온 이론적 한계를 벗어나 포괄적 수준에서 한 국가의 협력은 그 당사자 국가가 국내외에서 직면하는 정치 및 경제적 상황의 변수라는 것이 본 논문이 제기하는 주된 이론적 주장이다. 보다 구체적으로 이야기하면 한 국가의 정책결정자는 외교정책의 일환으로 협력과 분쟁정책을 시의 적절하게 교차하여 사용할 수 있다는 것이다. 즉 국내정치·경제상황의 전개에 따라서 외교정책을 활용할 수 있다. 이에 중요한 영향을 미치는 독립변수는 국내경제상황, 선거의 유무, 최고정책결정자의 대중적 지지도, 국가의 위상 등이다. 이를 시계열분석기법을 통해 자료를 분석함으로써 그 결과 국내정치상황이 국제협력에 영향을 주며 특히 선거의 도래와 최고정책결정자의 대중적 지지도가 통계학적으로 유의미한 영향을 가짐을 밝혔다. 반면 국내경제상황은 통계학적으로 유의미한 영향을 주지 못한다는 것을 밝혔다.
Abstract
Domestic Factors on Interstate Cooperation and Conflict in Democratic States: Empirical Analysis with Time-Series Analysis Seong-Woo Yi(Dankook University) This paper tries to find a theoretical alternative explaining international cooperation. Unlike the reciprocity theory of Tit-For-Tat, this focuses on domestic factors as major independent variables. The major argument of this article is that interstate cooperation is a function not only of reciprocal relationships but also of domestic politics and economic conditions in a given country, which ultimately explain the dynamic policy change in a given country from cooperation to deception, vice versa. Hence, this paper provides a new perspective on interstate cooperation study. In other words, a policy decision maker utilizes cooperation and conflict policies in order to take care of domestic politics. This paper analyzes the relationship between the occurrence of cooperation policies and domestic conditions with the pooled cross sectional time-series analysis, including 10 industrialized democratic countries. The results say that domestic political conditions such as electoral cycles and decision makers' supporting rates are statistically significant factors for the occurrence of cooperation policies. On the other hands, the domestic economic conditions have statistically insignificant impact
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