트럼프 등장 이후 나토 동맹의 비용분담 갈등과 동맹의 재조정 전망
NATO’s Cost Sharing Conflict and its Alliance Prospect in the Trump Era
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이 글의 목적은 트럼프 시대를 맞이하여 나토의 비용분담 논쟁을 살펴보고 대서양 동맹의 향후 변화를 전망하는 것이다. 분석 결과 나토의 비용분담에 관한 논쟁에서는 2개의 진영이 대결하고 있다. 미국과 동유럽 회원국은 국방예산의 증대를 주장하고, 독일을 비롯한 중유럽 회원국들은 개발원조, 평화 유지 활동, 군사기지의 제공 등을 비용분담에 포함시킬 것을 요구하고 있다. 미국과 유럽 간의 갈등은 향후 대서양 동맹에 변화를 가져올 것으로 전망된다. 첫째, 유럽의 안보 문제가 유럽 회원국에 의해 주도되는 방향으로 재조정될 것이다. 둘째, 나토와 러시아의 관계가 개선될 것으로 전망된다. 셋째, 현재까지 미국 주도로 진행되어 온 나토의 글로벌 군사개입이 축소될 것이다.
Abstract
This article aims to examine the cost sharing debate in NATO and foresee future changes of the Transatlantic Alliance. The analysis shows that there are two contradicting views. The U.S. and the Eastern European member states insist on an increase in defense budgets whereas the Central European countries led by Germany maintain that ODA, PKO, and provision of military bases be taken into consideration. As a consequence of this debate, the alliance is expected to change in the following manner. First, the NATO alliance will be reoriented to such a direction that the European member countries take more initiative. Second, the relationship between NATO and Russia is expected to improve. Third, the NATO's global military interventions, which have been led by the U.S., will be reduced.
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