자기회귀모형으로 분석한 고등학교 평준화정책 효과
An Analysis of the Public High School Education in Korea
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초록
최근 고등학교 평준화정책과 그에 따른 일련의 교육정책들이 학교 교육의 다양화·전문화·특성화를 소홀이 다루면서 고등학생 학업성취의 하향평준화를 유발시키고, 이것이 국가 경쟁력 향상에 걸림돌이 되고 있다는 논란이 가속화 되고 있다. 본 논문에서는 평준화정책이 학력의 하향평준화를 유발하였는지에 대한 가설을 실증적으로 증명하였다. 이를 위해서 2000년 ~2004년 기간 동안 시행된 대학수학능력시험 성적을 분석하고, 시험의 난이도 차이를 통제할 수 있는 계량분석방법으로 대학수학능력 성적 회귀방정식을 추정하였다. 또한 자기회귀모형을 이용하여 지속적인 평준화정책이 학력의 하향평준화를 심화시킬 수 있음을 밝혔다.
Abstract
It has been argued that the current public high school education policy in Korea could cause a downgrade in educational quality. This paper introduced the pros and cons as well as the controversy regarding the current public high school education policy and then investigated how much the grade level of the SAT dropped after the extensive high school equalization policy initiated from 2002 using the Korean SAT data from 2000 to 2004. In addition, the downgrade of the SAT was estimated using Arellano-Bond's dynamic panel data estimation, which method could take account of the levels of difficulty of SAT during the sample periods. The estimation results derived here were consistent with the downgrade of the SAT since 2002. Finally, these two results were confirmed by the simulation approach based upon an auto-regression model. For the simulation, the parameter values were employed from the estimation results. This paper concluded that the current public high school education policy resulted in a gradual decline in the excellence of high school education.
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