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전국 기후변화 영향평가를 위한 분포형 수문분석 툴 개발

Development of Distributed Hydrological Analysis Tool for Future Climate Change Impacts Assessment of South Korea

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초록

The purpose of this paper is to develop a software tool, PGA-CC (Projection of hydrology via Grid-based Assessment for Climate Change) to evaluate thepresent hydrologic cycle and the future watershed hydrology by climate change. PGA-CC is composed of grid-based input data pre-processing module,hydrologic cycle calculation module, output analysis module, and output data post-processing module. The grid-based hydrological model was coded byFortran and compiled using Compaq Fortran 6.6c, and the Graphic User Interface was developed by using Visual C#. Other most elements viz. Table andGraph, and GIS functions were implemented by MapWindow. The applicability of PGA-CC was tested by assessing the future hydrology of South Koreaby HadCM3 SRES B1 and A2 climate change scenarios. For the whole country, the tool successfully assessed the future hydrological componentsincluding input data and evapotranspiration, soil moisture, surface runoff, lateral flow, base flow etc. From the spatial outputs, we could understand thehydrological changes both seasonally and regionally.

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to develop a software tool, PGA-CC (Projection of hydrology via Grid-based Assessment for Climate Change) to evaluate thepresent hydrologic cycle and the future watershed hydrology by climate change. PGA-CC is composed of grid-based input data pre-processing module,hydrologic cycle calculation module, output analysis module, and output data post-processing module. The grid-based hydrological model was coded byFortran and compiled using Compaq Fortran 6.6c, and the Graphic User Interface was developed by using Visual C#. Other most elements viz. Table andGraph, and GIS functions were implemented by MapWindow. The applicability of PGA-CC was tested by assessing the future hydrology of South Koreaby HadCM3 SRES B1 and A2 climate change scenarios. For the whole country, the tool successfully assessed the future hydrological componentsincluding input data and evapotranspiration, soil moisture, surface runoff, lateral flow, base flow etc. From the spatial outputs, we could understand thehydrological changes both seasonally and regionally.

참고문헌 (14)

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  2. Crop Evapotranspiration: Guidelines for Computing Crop Water Requirements, "Allen, R. G.", FAO, ~, pp.Irrigation and Drainage Paper No. 56 (1998)
  3. Bae, D. H., "Hydrologic uncertainties in climate change from IPCC AR4 GCM simulations of the Chungju Basin, Korea", Journal of Hydrology, 401, pp.90~105 (2011)
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  6. 홍우용, "분포형 유역 일유출 모형의 개발 및 적용성 검토", 대한토목학회 논문집B, 30(5), pp.459~469 (2010), 대한토목학회
  7. Kim S. H., "The state of the arts of the PGA-CC for distributed hydrological analysis of South Korea by Future Climate Change", Magazine of Korea Water Resources Association, Water for Future, 45(7), pp.73~79 (2012)
  8. Kim S.J., "Assessment of land-use impact on streamflow via a grid-based modelling approach including paddy fields", Hydrological Processes, 19, pp.3801~3817 (2005)
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  12. 박종윤, "RCP 배출 시나리오와 SWAT 모형을 이용한 기후변화가 용담댐 유역의 수문요소에 미치는 영향 평가", 한국농공학회논문집, 56(3), pp.19~29 (2014), 한국농공학회
  13. Sloan, P. G., "Modelling subsurface storm flow on steeply sloping forested watershed", Water Resources Research, 20(12), pp.1815~1822 (1984)
  14. Surfleet C. G., "Selection of hydrologic modeling approaches for climate change assessment: A comparison of model scale and structures", Journal of Hydrology, 464(465), pp.233~248 (2012)

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