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논문

장래 기후변화와 토지이용 변화에 따른 농촌소유역의 수문 영향 분석

Climate and Land use Changes Impacts on Hydrology in a Rural Small Watershed

이은정|박승우|강문성|김학관
한국농공학회 (The Korean Society Of Agricultural Engineers)|2011.11|한국농공학회논문집 (Journal of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers)|제53권 제6호|pp. 75-84

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참고문헌

키워드

SWAT modelclimatic changeland use changeLARS-WGHydrologic impactCA-Markov
주제분류농학

초록

The objective of this study is to evaluate the hydrologic impacts of climate and land use changes in a rural small watershed. HadCM3 (Hadley Centre Coupled Model, ver.3) A2 scenario and LARS-WG (Long Ashton Research Station - Weather Generator)were used to generate future climatic data. Future land use data were also generated by the CA-Markov (Cellular Automata-Markov)method. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used to evaluate hydrologic impacts. The SWAT model was calibrated and validated with stream flow measured at the Baran watershed in Korea. The SWAT model simulation results agreed well with observed values during the calibration and validation periods. In this study, hydrologic impacts were analyzed according to three scenarios: future climate change (Scenario Ⅰ), future land use change (Scenario Ⅱ), and both future climate and land use changes (Scenario Ⅲ). For Scenario Ⅰ, the comparison results between a 30-year baseline period (1997～2004) and a future 30-year period (2011～2040) indicated that the total runoff, surface runoff, lateral subsurface runoff, groundwater discharge, and evapotranspiration increased as precipitation and temperature for the future 30-year period increased. The monthly variation analysis results showed that the monthly runoff for all months except September increased compared to the baseline period. For Scenario Ⅱ,both the total and surface runoff increased as the built-up area, including the impervious surface, increased, while the groundwater discharge and evapotranspiration decreased. The monthly variation analysis results indicated that the total runoff increased in the summer season, when the precipitation was concentrated. In Scenario Ⅲ, the results showed a similar trend to that of Scenario Ⅱ. The monthly runoff for all months except October increased compared to the baseline period.

Abstract

The objective of this study is to evaluate the hydrologic impacts of climate and land use changes in a rural small watershed. HadCM3 (Hadley Centre Coupled Model, ver.3) A2 scenario and LARS-WG (Long Ashton Research Station - Weather Generator)were used to generate future climatic data. Future land use data were also generated by the CA-Markov (Cellular Automata-Markov)method. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used to evaluate hydrologic impacts. The SWAT model was calibrated and validated with stream flow measured at the Baran watershed in Korea. The SWAT model simulation results agreed well with observed values during the calibration and validation periods. In this study, hydrologic impacts were analyzed according to three scenarios: future climate change (Scenario Ⅰ), future land use change (Scenario Ⅱ), and both future climate and land use changes (Scenario Ⅲ). For Scenario Ⅰ, the comparison results between a 30-year baseline period (1997～2004) and a future 30-year period (2011～2040) indicated that the total runoff, surface runoff, lateral subsurface runoff, groundwater discharge, and evapotranspiration increased as precipitation and temperature for the future 30-year period increased. The monthly variation analysis results showed that the monthly runoff for all months except September increased compared to the baseline period. For Scenario Ⅱ,both the total and surface runoff increased as the built-up area, including the impervious surface, increased, while the groundwater discharge and evapotranspiration decreased. The monthly variation analysis results indicated that the total runoff increased in the summer season, when the precipitation was concentrated. In Scenario Ⅲ, the results showed a similar trend to that of Scenario Ⅱ. The monthly runoff for all months except October increased compared to the baseline period.

참고문헌 (33)

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