RCP 배출 시나리오와 SWAT 모형을 이용한 기후변화가 용담댐 유역의 수문요소에 미치는 영향 평가
Assessing Climate Change Impact on Hydrological Components of Yongdam Dam Watershed Using RCP Emission Scenarios and SWAT Model
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초록
This study was to evaluate the potential climate change impact on watershed hydrological components of evapotranspiration, surface runoff, lateral flow, return flow, and streamflow using Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). For Yongdam dam watershed (930 km2), the SWAT model was calibrated for five years (2002-2006) and validated for three years (2004-2006) using daily streamflow data at three locations and daily soil moisture data at five locations. The Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency (NSE) and coefficient of determination (R2) were 0.43-0.67 and 0.48-0.70 for streamflow, and 0.16-0.65 and 0.27-0.76 for soil moisture, respectively. For future evaluation, the HadGEM3-RA climate data by Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios were adopted. The biased future data were corrected using 30 years (1982-2011, baseline period) of ground weather data. The HadGEM3-RA 2080s (2060-2099) temperature and precipitation showed increase of +4.7 ℃ and +22.5 %, respectively based on the baseline data. The impacts of future climate change on the evapotranspiration, surface runoff, baseflow, and streamflow showed changes of ＋11.8 %, ＋36.8 %, ＋20.5 %, and ＋29.2 %, respectively. Overall, the future hydrologic results by RCP emission scenarios showed increase patterns due to the overall increase of future temperature and precipitation.
Abstract
This study was to evaluate the potential climate change impact on watershed hydrological components of evapotranspiration, surface runoff, lateral flow, return flow, and streamflow using Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). For Yongdam dam watershed (930 km2), the SWAT model was calibrated for five years (2002-2006) and validated for three years (2004-2006) using daily streamflow data at three locations and daily soil moisture data at five locations. The Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency (NSE) and coefficient of determination (R2) were 0.43-0.67 and 0.48-0.70 for streamflow, and 0.16-0.65 and 0.27-0.76 for soil moisture, respectively. For future evaluation, the HadGEM3-RA climate data by Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios were adopted. The biased future data were corrected using 30 years (1982-2011, baseline period) of ground weather data. The HadGEM3-RA 2080s (2060-2099) temperature and precipitation showed increase of +4.7 ℃ and +22.5 %, respectively based on the baseline data. The impacts of future climate change on the evapotranspiration, surface runoff, baseflow, and streamflow showed changes of ＋11.8 %, ＋36.8 %, ＋20.5 %, and ＋29.2 %, respectively. Overall, the future hydrologic results by RCP emission scenarios showed increase patterns due to the overall increase of future temperature and precipitation.
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