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자본이동성과 경제성장

International Capital Mobility and Economic Growth

김홍기|김봉한
한국경제의 분석패널 (Panel for Korean Economic Analysis)|2010.04|한국경제의 분석 (Journal of Korean Economic Analysis)|제16권 제1호|pp. 33-98

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참고문헌

키워드

주식총요소생산성경제성장Economic GrowthTotal Factor Productivity자본이동성Debt채무Panel CointegrationStockInternational Capital Mobility비안정적 패널분석패널FMOLS추정총량자본이동성Nonstatioanry PanelPanel FMOLS Estimator
주제분류경제학

초록

본 연구는 1970년~2004년 동안 78개국으로 구성된 연도별 비안정 패널자료를 이용하여 자본이동성과 경제성장 그리고 총요소생산성 간의 관계에 대하여 실증분석을 하고 있다. 본 논문의 실증분석 결과는 다음과 같이 요약된다. 첫째, 대상국가나 시기에 관계 없이 주식에 의한 자본이동성 증대는 총요소생산성을 증대시키고 나아가 국민소득을 증대시키지만, 채무에 의한 자본이동성 증대는 총요소생산성을 떨어뜨려 국민소득을 하락시킨다. 둘째, 총량자본이동성의 증대는 선진국의 경우에 총요소생산성을 증대시키지만 후진국의 경우에는 총요소생산성을 떨어뜨리고 있다. 이는 선진국의 경우에는 자본이동이 상대적으로 주식의 형태로 이루어지는 비중이 높아 총량자본이동성 증대가 총요소생산성을 증가시키는 것으로 추정되고, 후진국의 경우에는 자본이동이 주로 채무의 형태로 이루어져 총량자본이동성의 증대는 총요소생산성을 떨어뜨리는 것으로 해석된다. 셋째, 총량자본이동성의 증대는 개도국의 경우 국민소득을 떨어뜨리지만 선진국의 경우에는 국민소득을 증가시키거나 혹은 유의한 영향을 주지 않고 있다. 넷째, 총량자본이동성 증대가 국민소득에 미치는 부정적인 영향은 1980년대 중반 이후 크게 감소하거나 혹은 긍정적으로 나타나고 있는데, 이는 그 이전에 비해 주식에 의한 자본이동의 형태가 크게 증가하였기 때문으로 파악된다. 다섯째, 자본이동성과 경제성장 간의 관계에 대한 기존의 실증분석이 서로 다른 결과를 가져온 이유는 자본이동의 형태를 고려하지 않고 자본이동 총량에만 주안점을 두었기 때문으로 해석된다. 여섯째, 자본이동성의 증대가 거시경제변수의 불완전성을 증대시켜 경제성장에 부정적인 영향을 준다는 주장은 자본이동이 주로 채무에 의해 이루어지는 경우에 한정되는 것으로 파악된다.

Abstract

We aim at checking whether the international capital mobility increases economic growth or total factor productivity(TFP) or not, using nonstationary panel data over the period of 1979~2004 and 78 countries. The empirical results are summarized as follows. Firstly, an increase in the stock based international capital mobility raises the per capita income and TFP, while an increase in the debt based capital mobility lowers the TFP and the income. Secondly, the higher gross international capital mobility increases the TFP in the advanced countries, but decreases the TFP in the developing countries. This different effects of gross international capital mobility depending on the income level of countries might be owing to the facts that international capital flows in the developing countries are mainly based on the debt, while those in advanced countries are relatively based on stocks. Thirdly, the effects of the gross international capital mobility on the per capital income are negative in the developing countries, while the higher gross international capital mobility has positive or little impacts on the income in the advanced countries. And the size of negative effects of international capital mobility reduced for the 1986-2004 period when international capital movement in the form of stock increased significantly. The different results about relationship between the international capital mobility and the economic growth in the previous researches are owing to the facts they do not take into consideration the financial instruments of international capital mobility. Finally, the argument that higher international capital mobility increases the macro instability, therefore causes the negative impacts on economic growth is supposed to be limited the debt based international capital mobility.

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