자본계정 자유화와 경제성장: The Threshold Estimation Approach
Capital Account Liberalization and Economic Growth: The Threshold Estimation Approach
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초록
본 논문에서는 1985년부터 2011년까지 89개국의 해외직접투자(FDI)와 채무(Debt)부문 해외자본계정 자료를 이용하여 자본계정 자유화와 경제성장 간의 관계에 대해 연구하였다. 교육수준, 금융발전 및 무역개방도의 역치효과(Threshold Effect) 존재 여부를 판별하기 위해 Hansen (2000)의 역치추정(Threshold Estimation) 방법론을 도입하였다. 연구결과는 다음과 같다. 첫째, 교육수준의 경우 FDI와 채무부문 모두에서 통계적으로 유의한 역치수준이 존재하였다. 둘째, 금융발전 정도 역시 FDI와 채무부문 모두에서 통계적으로 유의한 역치수준이 존재하였는데, 특히 역치수준 아래에 있는 국가들의 채무부문 자유화는 이들의 경제성장에 오히려 악영향을미치는 것으로 판명되었다. 셋째, 무역개방도의 경우 FDI와 채무부문 모두에서 유의미한 역치수준을 가지지 않았다.
Abstract
This paper aims to assess the effect of capital account liberalization on economic growth, using data from 89 countries over the 1985～2011 period. I account for two categories of capital account liberalization, foreign direct investment (FDI) and foreign debt. I use the threshold estimation method of Hansen (2000) to examine the existence of the threshold effect of education, financial development and trade openness levels. The empirical results are as follows. First, there exists the statistically significant threshold effect of education level in FDI and debt categories. 22 countries under the threshold level of education have no positive effect of FDI and debt liberalization on economic growth. Second, 36 countries which are under the threshold level of financial development have not only no positive effect of FDI, but also the negative effect of debt liberalization on economic growth. Third, the trade openness has no significant threshold level between capital account liberalization and economic growth.
참고문헌 (19)
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