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비안정 패널자료를 활용한 외국인 직접투자의 장기효과: 개도국을 중심으로

The Long Run Effects of FDI Using Nonstationary Panel Data in Developing Countries

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한국국제경제학회 (The Korea International Economic Association)|2004.04|국제경제연구 (KUKJE KYUNGJE YONGU)|제10권 제1호|pp. 21-48

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키워드

총요소생산성경제성장Economic GrowthFDITotal Factor Productivity외국인직접투자Panel Unit RootPanel Cointegration그룹간 FMOLS 패널공적분패널장기인과관계Panel Group Mean FMOLSPanel Long Run Causality
주제분류경제학

초록

본 논문은 최근에 활발하게 논의되고 있는 패널공적분기법을 활용하여 1980-1998년까지 28개 개도국에서 FDI 유입이 경제성장, 총요소생산성 그리고 경상수지에 미치는 효과를 분석하고 있다. 실증분석 결과에 따르면 FDI 유입은 국내투자보다 장기적으로 GDP, TFP에 더 큰 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타나고 있다. 또한 패널 장기인과관계 분석결과는 FDI에서 TFP로의 인과관계가 존재하고 GDP에서 FDI로의 인과관계가 존재한다. 그러나 FDI에서 GDP로의 인과관계는 존재하지 않는 것으로 나타나고 있다. 또한 FDI는 국내투자와는 달리 경상수지를 개선시키는 효과를 갖는다. 한편 FDI는 TFP의 증대를 통해 1인당 GDP를 증대시키는 간접효과를 갖는다. 이러한 사실을 고려할 때 FDI유치를 위한 조세혜택이나 보조금 정책은 일정 정도 정당하다고 판단된다.

Abstract

This paper studies the effects of FDI on economic growth, total factor productivity and current account in 28 developing countries for the period of 1980-1998, using the recently advanced panel cointegration techniques. The empirical results show that FDI inflows are cointegrated with GDP, TFP and current account. FDI has a higher long run correlation with GDP and TFP than domestic investments. The panel long run causality results show that long run causality exists from FDI to TFP and from GDP to FDI, not the other way around. FDI leads to an improvement of current account. FDI looks to contribute to higher per capita GDP through an increase in TFP.

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