핵물질 연대측정을 위한 불확도 추정 알고리즘 연구
Uncertainty Calculation Algorithm for the Estimation of the Radiochronometry of Nuclear Material
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Nuclear forensics has been understood as a mendatory component in the internationalsociety for nuclear material control and non-proliferation verification. Radiochronometry of nuclearactivities for nuclear forensics are decay series characteristics of nuclear materials and the Batemanequation to estimate when nuclear materials were purified and produced. Radiochronometry values haveuncertainty of measurement due to the uncertainty factors in the estimation process. These uncertaintiesshould be calculated using appropriate evaluation methods that are representative of the accuracyand reliability. The IAEA, US, and EU have been researched on radiochronometry and uncertainty ofmeasurement, although the uncertainty calculation method using the Bateman equation is limited bythe underestimation of the decay constant and the impossibility of estimating the age of more than onegeneration, so it is necessary to conduct uncertainty calculation research using computer simulationsuch as Monte Carlo method. This highlights the need for research using computational simulations,such as the Monte Carlo method, to overcome these limitations. In this study, we have analyzedmathematical models and the LHS (Latin Hypercube Sampling) methods to enhance the reliability ofradiochronometry which is to develop an uncertainty algorithm for nuclear material radiochronometryusing Bateman Equation. We analyzed the LHS method, which can obtain effective statistical results witha small number of samples, and applied it to algorithms that are Monte Carlo methods for uncertaintycalculation by computer simulation. This was implemented through the MATLAB computationalsoftware. The uncertainty calculation model using mathematical models demonstrated characteristicsbased on the relationship between sensitivity coefficients and radiative equilibrium. Computationalsimulation random sampling showed characteristics dependent on random sampling methods, samplingiteration counts, and the probability distribution of uncertainty factors. For validation, we comparedmodels from various international organizations, mathematical models, and the Monte Carlo method. The developed algorithm was found to perform calculations at an equivalent level of accuracy comparedto overseas institutions and mathematical model-based methods. To enhance usability, future researchand comparisons· validations need to incorporate more complex decay chains and non-homogeneous conditions. The results of this study can serve as foundational technology in the nuclear forensics field,providing tools for the identification of signature nuclides and aiding in the research, development,comparison, and validation of related technologies.
Abstract
Nuclear forensics has been understood as a mendatory component in the internationalsociety for nuclear material control and non-proliferation verification. Radiochronometry of nuclearactivities for nuclear forensics are decay series characteristics of nuclear materials and the Batemanequation to estimate when nuclear materials were purified and produced. Radiochronometry values haveuncertainty of measurement due to the uncertainty factors in the estimation process. These uncertaintiesshould be calculated using appropriate evaluation methods that are representative of the accuracyand reliability. The IAEA, US, and EU have been researched on radiochronometry and uncertainty ofmeasurement, although the uncertainty calculation method using the Bateman equation is limited bythe underestimation of the decay constant and the impossibility of estimating the age of more than onegeneration, so it is necessary to conduct uncertainty calculation research using computer simulationsuch as Monte Carlo method. This highlights the need for research using computational simulations,such as the Monte Carlo method, to overcome these limitations. In this study, we have analyzedmathematical models and the LHS (Latin Hypercube Sampling) methods to enhance the reliability ofradiochronometry which is to develop an uncertainty algorithm for nuclear material radiochronometryusing Bateman Equation. We analyzed the LHS method, which can obtain effective statistical results witha small number of samples, and applied it to algorithms that are Monte Carlo methods for uncertaintycalculation by computer simulation. This was implemented through the MATLAB computationalsoftware. The uncertainty calculation model using mathematical models demonstrated characteristicsbased on the relationship between sensitivity coefficients and radiative equilibrium. Computationalsimulation random sampling showed characteristics dependent on random sampling methods, samplingiteration counts, and the probability distribution of uncertainty factors. For validation, we comparedmodels from various international organizations, mathematical models, and the Monte Carlo method. The developed algorithm was found to perform calculations at an equivalent level of accuracy comparedto overseas institutions and mathematical model-based methods. To enhance usability, future researchand comparisons· validations need to incorporate more complex decay chains and non-homogeneous conditions. The results of this study can serve as foundational technology in the nuclear forensics field,
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