한미 연합군사훈련과 북한의 인식공포와 엄포 사이

Abstract

The reason that North Korea has been sensitive to the ROK-US joint military exercise can be categorized largely into two assessments based on North Korea’s strategy toward South Korea and external threat recognition. The former is based on rogue state rather than logical assessment in that the primary objective of North Korea asking for the suspension of the ROK-US joint drills is to achieve unification under communism through withdrawal of the US Forces in Korea and weakening of the US-Korean military alliance. On the other hand, the latter is based on the recognition that the ROK-US joint drills is a serious threat to the stability of North Korean regime and maintenance of its system. It has been confirmed through the ROK-US joint military exercises that North Korea considers the ROK-US combined military strength as a critical threat against its survival. It is believed that the threat recognition is connected to the development of nuclear missiles as well as North Korean provocative military activities. However, it is difficult to conclude that North Korea demanding suspension of the ROK-US joint military exercise is simply based on the threat recognition. A delicate difference has been seen in the North Korea’s reaction against the ROK-US joint military exercises between the both periods of Kim Il Sung and Kim Jong Il in the past and the current Kim Jong Un’s regime. North Korea’s fear has been amplified with the experience of the Korean War and the reversal of economic power between South and North Korea in the 1970s under the Kim Il Sung’s regime when the ROK-US joint military exercise has begun. It can be said that Pyongyang’s condemnation of and demand to suspend the ROK-US joint military exercise when North Korea did not have the Nuclear has originated from real fear. But it is believed that as a nuclear power state, North Korea’s condemnation of the ROK-US joint military exercise and even mentioning revenge is rather a threat for survival and forestallment for dialogue and negotiations than simply a sense of fear. Denuclearization/Peace system and the ROK-US joint military exercise are never unrelated as the ROK-US joint military exercise is labelled as a way to subvert the North Korean regime in a situation that North Korea claims that the nuclear is something absolute for its stability and maintenance. From now on, the issues of the ROK-US joint military exercise can be the first step to start the process to solve North Korea’s nuclear problem and to establish the peace system. It is time to think about how to solve the problem of the ROK-US joint military exercise without damaging or threatening the Korea’s security.